In a few days, the NBA is going to lock out its players. It's pretty much inevitable.
You're going to hear and read all sorts of rhetoric from the two sides and from media members who don't really "get it." They'll try to make this a "good guys-bad guys" thing and it's anything but.
As Michael Corleone said, "It's not personal, Sonny...it's strictly business."
It's my hope here to take the saber-rattling out of this situation and give you a clearer idea of what's truly going on. Warning: this isn't really about sports, but the basic business dynamics don't require an MBA (come to think of it, I've never found anything that requires an MBA...but I digress).
Finance 101
You'll hear it said that "the NBA is making money," which is both true and completely irrelevant. The NBA is a league and it doesn't make anything. If you want to know the financial health of the NBA, you have to ask the profit or loss question 30 times...once each for the 30 actual businesses/teams that make up the NBA.
Obviously, every business would like to make a profit, but depending on their situation, this can be difficult if such "hidden expenses" like interest on debt and the amortization/depreciation of assets are high. A business could be reasonably healthy, but because of these expenses, may show a loss. This is one of the reasons why accountants and financial types keep track of "operating income." Operating income excludes these hidden expenses leaving a purer picture of revenue less operating expenses.
If you're running at an operating loss, it pretty much means that what you're paying to make your widgets is more than what you can sell them for...not good.
According to Forbes magazine, in 2010 twelve of the NBA's 30 teams posted an operating loss. That's 40% of the teams in the league and that's a decidedly bad thing. However, in my opinion, it's not quite that bad since 2 of the 12 operational losers have purely self-inflicted wounds. The Portland Trailblazers (owner is Microsoft co-founder and noted philanthropist, Paul Allen) and Dallas Mavericks (owner is Mark Cuban, who probably bought the team because of it's name) both spend on players' salaries like they're mega-market teams though they clearly are not. Put another way, they're irresponsible, but can afford to be. Oh yeah...Cuban was rewarded for his fiscal irresponsibility with an NBA title this season.
Mismanaged or Just Mid-Market?
You'll likely hear that a big part of the problem in the NBA is that too many franchises are mismanaged. I don't know if they are or aren't. However, it's pretty obvious that, if you're the New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls or the LA Lakers, you can charge a lot more for your tickets than if you're the New Orleans Hornets, Sacramento Kings or Milwaukee Bucks. Even more important, big market teams can make several times what mid-market teams can make in local TV and radio contracts.
It's not a level playing field.
Still, some mid-market teams made money in 2010. Perhaps the most notable was the Oklahoma City Thunder who posted a remarkable operating income of $12.5MM. The Thunder is the city's only big league franchise...ever. In baseball terms, they're strictly Triple-A. However, when the New Orleans Hornets needed an alternative place to play due to Hurricane Katrina, OKC was chosen and the city received the NBA so enthusiastically that the league helped engineer the move of the struggling Seattle Supersonics franchise to OKC.
The Thunder inherited a young superstar named Kevin Durant who was joined by star-in-his-own-right point guard Russell Westbrook in 2008. The Thunder's front office has done a very good job of building around their nucleus and the team has been exciting and very successful on the court.
Some will point to the Thunder as an example of a mid-market team that has done it the "right way." While I give credit to the Thunder, for the 2009-10 season, they paid Durant and Westbrook a combined $8.6MM. Durant alone will jump to $13.6MM in 2011-12 and Westbrook will soon follow that same path.
Good-bye OKC operating income.
The Crux of the Matter
Based on the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the NBA players and owners, only about 20 of the current teams can be expected to break even or better in terms of operating income. In the simplest terms, this means that either the league needs to eliminate "fringe" franchises or significantly change the CBA...ideally by enough to make the current 30 teams viable.
The truth is that neither the owners nor the players want contraction. For the owners, contraction's a bad idea for two reasons - 1) having 30 significant media markets included enhances their leverage in terms of the national TV contracts and 2) having these markets in the fold minimizes the chances of the formation of a rival league. While rival leagues seldom succeed for long, they always seem to do two things while they live - raid a couple of your superstars and generally increase players' salaries.
The players, particularly the non-stars, don't want contraction for the most obvious of reasons...fewer job opportunities.
From the owners' perspective, this is where the argument ends. Contraction or making the CBA more mid-market-friendly. In the soon-to-commence public relations war, the players and their representatives will seek to add a 3rd alternative...increased revenue sharing.
NBA Revenue Sharing
As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, when taken in total, the NBA is profitable. The players, while acknowledging the financial problems of the smaller market teams, will claim that the dollars are there...they just need to be distributed more equally.
At first hearing, this may sound good, but it's an absolute non-starter from the owners perspective, and any reasonable business perspective. If you just bought a mega-market NBA franchise and paid the huge premium for the privilege, you are going to have a very serious and completely reasonable problem if someone tries to cut the (large) anticipated revenue stream that was used to set your purchase price. You'll also scream bloody murder over the fact that a significant change to the revenue sharing rules would cause the asset you just paid $500MM for to be reduced to $300MM.
When it comes to revenue sharing, it's one of those situations where you simply can't change the rules in the middle of a game.
So What's Next?
The owners pretty much laid their cards on the table when they introduced their $62MM "Flex Cap" proposal. If the union doesn't accept this in the next few days, the owners may go back to their silly posturing about a $45MM "hard cap" and the elimination of guaranteed contracts.
The problem here is that the owners' Flex Cap proposal may be close to their best offer (though the owners very purposely left key final details open to negotiation). The union treated the owners proposal like a posturing move (that is, they crapped all over it). It's possible that the players' representatives made a tactical error here that may cost both sides time and money only to have them end up in the same place they could be right now.
At the risk of repeating myself, the key point is that the owners are determined to come away with a CBA that works for 30 teams, not the current 20 teams who are or could be (if not for owner largesse) in the black in terms of operating income.
The players don't want to give up what they have and this is understandable. However, if they aren't ready to accept something very close to the owners' Flex cap proposal, the 2011-12 NBA season is unquestionably in jeopardy.
As fans, we're definitely on the outside looking in, but I hope that this helps you be a better consumer of the stuff that the media's about to throw at you.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Friday, June 24, 2011
Bulls Draft: Smart, Not Spectacular
By all accounts, the 2011 draft class was an exceptionally weak one.
So if you're the Bulls and you come in with the 28th, 30th and 43rd picks, you're expectations should be adjusted accordingly. The Bulls didn't find their shooting guard of the future, but then again, they didn't expect to.
Having established themselves as legitimate title contenders, the Bulls entered the draft with a dream and a plan. The dream was that they could somehow use their picks and a non-rotation player or two in a trade that would net them a shooting guard like the Grizzlies' O.J. Mayo or Houston's Courtney Lee, both players for whom the Bulls showed interest at the February trade deadline. It didn't happen in February and it didn't happen on Draft Night.
Since the dream didn't materialize, Bulls management moved quickly on their plan. Though they had 3 picks, Bulls' General Manager Gar Forman made it clear that they wanted no more than 2 rookies on their roster. The truth is that they preferred zero or one, leaving more room for veterans who could help the team immediately. Though their dream didn't come true, they executed their plan very nicely.
Nikola Mirotic
First, they traded their #28 and #43 picks for the Minnesota Timberwolves' 23rd overall pick. With that pick, they selected 20 year-old Montenegro-born power forward Nikola Mirotic. The 6-10 power forward has two things the Bulls really like. First, he's got talent...loads of it. Second, because of his contract obligations playing for the prestigious Real Madrid team, he won't be available for at least two years, saving the Bulls a roster spot. According to DraftExpress.com, for my money the foremost published source for talent evaluations of NBA prospects, "Chicago just drafted the 7th most talented player in the draft with the #23 pick." Most scouts I've read agree and feel that Mirotic would have been a top-10 selection if not for his contract commitments. The truth is that the Bulls are more than happy to have Mirotic develop his game overseas where he can get much more game action against quality competition.
While those fans whose only form of gratification is the immediate variety will be disappointed that they'll have to wait to see Mirotic in a Bulls' uniform, for Bulls' management, this was Christmas in June.
Jimmy Butler
At #30 the Bulls selected 6-8 Marquette swingman (shooting guard/small forward) Jimmy Butler. Butler's life story would be made into a movie except it already was. If you saw "The Blindside," just substitute Butler for Baltimore Ravens offensive tackle Michael Oher and switch from the gridiron to to the hardwood and the stories are virtually identical. Suffice it to say that if it's true that it's not what you achieve, but what you overcome that matters most, this kid's character is off the charts.
Character is great and all, but can the young man ball? Playing in the tough, tough Big East Conference last season, Butler averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds per game while shooting 49% from the field and 35% from the 3-point arc. Good numbers. And before you go thinking that Butler is one of those productive college players who lack the athleticism for the NBA, be advised that he posted a 39-inch vertical leap at the combine, just an inch short of what Derrick Rose did. The two words most often associated with Butler are versatility and defense...good words.
While it's always a longshot for a 30th pick to make it in the NBA, Jimmy Butler's overcome much worse.
It's not surprising that few fans are doing cartwheels over the Bulls' draft. Still, I think the Bulls did a great job of executing their pre-draft plan and for this deserve at least polite applause.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
NBA Proposal - A Hard Cap by Any Other Name
The current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the league and the players includes a "soft" salary cap that is set at 51% of league basketball-related income divided by 30 teams. For the 2010-11 season, the team salary cap was just over $58million. However, the current CBA contains several "exceptions" which allow teams to exceed the cap. This is why it gets its "soft" designation. The fact is that only about 1/3 of the teams in the league are actually at or under the current cap and teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic have payrolls of around $90million. So yes, it can often be a very soft cap.
What the owners proposed is something they're calling a "flex cap" which is ironic because its revolutionary feature (for the NBA) is that it is in fact a hard cap design. In essence, the owners' proposal would retain its main salary cap and would even increase it to $62million. They would also retain the key salary cap exceptions including the "Larry Bird" exception (allows a team to go over the cap to sign its own player) and the "Mid-Level" exception, or MLE (allows a team that's over the cap to sign one or more free agent players so long as the total salary added doesn't exceed the league's average salary, currently around $5million). Sounds reasonable so far.
The Catch
The owners proposal was for a yet-to-be-negotiated minimum team salary and a maximum team salary. It's the maximum team salary that is controversial because, as the owners presented it, none of the exceptions that allow teams to exceed the salary cap figure would apply when it comes to the maximum team salary, that is, the maximum team salary is the hard cap.
Cleverly, the owners didn't propose the upper and lower bands of their proposal. Essentially, they've told the players that "once you buy into our overall design, we can be somewhat flexible about the actual numbers." The problem is that the players have said that they'll never accept a hard cap and correctly see that this is exactly what the owners have proposed.
The Philosophy of a Hard Cap
Most fans view a hard salary cap as a way for the owners to control overall player salary costs. However, the truth is that the NBA has a very effective control of overall player salaries built in to the current CBA. The players' salaries are guaranteed not to exceed 57% of revenues. An 8% deduction is taken from each player's salary and put into an escrow account. If player salaries exceed the 57%, the owners receive the overage from this escrow account, and if the total escrow account is insufficient, player salary deductions are increased the following season.
So why a hard cap? Why not just fiddle with the 57% figure? Good question and it's exactly the question the players are asking. The reason is that, for the NBA, the hard cap is about enhancing competition (or "parity"), not cost control. The current CBA includes a "Luxury Tax" provision that sets the tax level at 61% of basketball-related income (divided by 30 teams). Last year the tax trigger was about $70million, or $12million over the salary cap. For each dollar a team exceeds the $70million level, that team must pay a dollar of tax. After the season, the tax pool is divided among the teams that did not have to pay the tax.
The plain truth is that the Luxury Tax has been a failure. For the 2010-11 season, 7 teams exceeded the tax trigger point. The combined record of these 7 teams was 352-242 and only one of them had a losing record (Utah Jazz at 39-43). Once again, the league champion was among the Luxury Tax teams (Dallas Mavericks at $86.6million).
By insisting on an absolute maximum salary, the league hopes that their mid-market teams like the Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers will be better able to compete with their big-market brothers and that this will open the road to their financial health.
Hard Cap Not All the Owners Want
Sort of lost in all the talk about the owners' hard cap/flex cap proposal is that they also want a 50%-50% revenue split with the players. As mentioned, the players currently receive 57%. This is hardly an insignificant aspect of the owners' proposal and may actually be more important to the owners than the hard cap since, in the end, virtually all labor negotiations are about how the revenue pie is split.
Unfortunately for fans, this situation is looking very similar to the NHL negotiations of a few years ago. In that case, the owners insisted on both a bigger piece of the pie and a hard cap. The players said they were flexible on the revenue split, but would never accept the hard cap.
The entire 2004-05 NHL season was lost.
Monday, May 30, 2011
J.R. Smith
This summer, I expect to hear J.R. Smith's name brought up repeatedly in connection with the Bulls. I don't really feel like dealing with Smith piecemeal so I might as well get my feelings out on the table.
For those unfamiliar with Smith, he's a 25 year-old 6-6 shooting guard who has played the last 4 seasons for the Denver Nuggets. In 2004, the New Orleans Hornets signed him out of high school as the 18th overall pick in the NBA draft. After two years with New Orleans, he was traded as "filler" in the trade that brought P.J. Brown to the Bulls and sent Tyson Chandler to New Orleans. The Bulls kept Smith for 6 days...as long as it took to get a couple 2nd round picks from the Nuggets...the Bulls had absolutely no interest in Smith.
Smith is an extremely talented scorer, averaging 18.8 points per 36 minutes over his 7-year NBA career. He's also adequately efficient with a career true shooting percentage of 54.7%. I haven't watched many of his games since neither New Orleans nor Denver tend to get a lot of national TV run. From what I've seen, he's got a huge "Wow Factor." Unfortunately, he's also got a huge "WTF Factor." He's an indiscriminate shooter.
He's a career 37% 3-point shooter, which is OK, but that doesn't really tell the story. When Smith is on, he doesn't just make 3-pointers, he makes 3-pointers from what ought to be 4-point range....with a hand in his face...and off balance. Seriously, he can be amazing.
Cutting to the chase, I have no interest in Smith...zero. He's a bit of a whack job and a coach's nightmare. While I haven't seen many of his games, I can recognize a million dollar player with a 10 cent head when I see him.
This is what Smith is. Someday someone might rehabilitate him and he could become an absolute jewel. The Bulls need to make some incremental improvement, but they don't need to take this kind of risk.
As a 19 year-old rookie, New Orleans head coach Byron Scott started Smith in 56 of the 76 games Smith played, but only played him 24 minutes per game. After that rookie season, the uber-talented Smith has been a bench player. It's the kind of thing that makes you go "hmm." And it's not as if he's been coached by clueless novices...Scott and Denver head coach George Karl know the game. Even when the Nuggets lost their top scorer Carmelo Anthony, Karl didn't start Smith or see fit to play him big minutes. In their 2011 playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Karl played Smith a paltry 15 minutes per game.
It's been said that it got to the point that Karl refused to talk to Smith. He'd send him in the game from time to time, but didn't want to deal with him. For those keeping track, this is not a good thing.
Oh yeah, part of the reason many Bulls fans are all gaga about Smith is that Smith is a free agent. Smith supporters believe that he'll be available for the mid-level exception (aka the MLE...about $5million year 1 salary and, since the Bulls are over the salary cap. the only way that they can sign a free agent outright). If the Bulls could sign Smith with the MLE, they wouldn't need to trade any of their current players.
Pure and simple, Smith's a headcase. While he undeniably has loads of talent, he's never quite taken the game or his career seriously. After 7 seasons, I happen to believe that those who believe that this might change with the Bulls are simply foolish optimists. These fans will counter with something like, "Yeah, but the Bulls have to do something!"
I hear ya, but the Bulls won 62 games and don't need to employ a roulette wheel strategy to the team's improvement. They don't need to "take a flyer" on a proven loser...and that's what J.R. Smith is...a proven loser.
For those unfamiliar with Smith, he's a 25 year-old 6-6 shooting guard who has played the last 4 seasons for the Denver Nuggets. In 2004, the New Orleans Hornets signed him out of high school as the 18th overall pick in the NBA draft. After two years with New Orleans, he was traded as "filler" in the trade that brought P.J. Brown to the Bulls and sent Tyson Chandler to New Orleans. The Bulls kept Smith for 6 days...as long as it took to get a couple 2nd round picks from the Nuggets...the Bulls had absolutely no interest in Smith.
Smith is an extremely talented scorer, averaging 18.8 points per 36 minutes over his 7-year NBA career. He's also adequately efficient with a career true shooting percentage of 54.7%. I haven't watched many of his games since neither New Orleans nor Denver tend to get a lot of national TV run. From what I've seen, he's got a huge "Wow Factor." Unfortunately, he's also got a huge "WTF Factor." He's an indiscriminate shooter.
He's a career 37% 3-point shooter, which is OK, but that doesn't really tell the story. When Smith is on, he doesn't just make 3-pointers, he makes 3-pointers from what ought to be 4-point range....with a hand in his face...and off balance. Seriously, he can be amazing.
Cutting to the chase, I have no interest in Smith...zero. He's a bit of a whack job and a coach's nightmare. While I haven't seen many of his games, I can recognize a million dollar player with a 10 cent head when I see him.
This is what Smith is. Someday someone might rehabilitate him and he could become an absolute jewel. The Bulls need to make some incremental improvement, but they don't need to take this kind of risk.
As a 19 year-old rookie, New Orleans head coach Byron Scott started Smith in 56 of the 76 games Smith played, but only played him 24 minutes per game. After that rookie season, the uber-talented Smith has been a bench player. It's the kind of thing that makes you go "hmm." And it's not as if he's been coached by clueless novices...Scott and Denver head coach George Karl know the game. Even when the Nuggets lost their top scorer Carmelo Anthony, Karl didn't start Smith or see fit to play him big minutes. In their 2011 playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Karl played Smith a paltry 15 minutes per game.
It's been said that it got to the point that Karl refused to talk to Smith. He'd send him in the game from time to time, but didn't want to deal with him. For those keeping track, this is not a good thing.
Oh yeah, part of the reason many Bulls fans are all gaga about Smith is that Smith is a free agent. Smith supporters believe that he'll be available for the mid-level exception (aka the MLE...about $5million year 1 salary and, since the Bulls are over the salary cap. the only way that they can sign a free agent outright). If the Bulls could sign Smith with the MLE, they wouldn't need to trade any of their current players.
Pure and simple, Smith's a headcase. While he undeniably has loads of talent, he's never quite taken the game or his career seriously. After 7 seasons, I happen to believe that those who believe that this might change with the Bulls are simply foolish optimists. These fans will counter with something like, "Yeah, but the Bulls have to do something!"
I hear ya, but the Bulls won 62 games and don't need to employ a roulette wheel strategy to the team's improvement. They don't need to "take a flyer" on a proven loser...and that's what J.R. Smith is...a proven loser.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Bulls-Heat: Sudden Death
I knew the song was coming to an end, but I thought there was at least one more verse.
To state the obvious, the ending to Thursday night’s Game 5 was an awful way to end a truly wonderful season. The Bulls who kept surprising us all season, surprised us one more time. The last 3 minutes were like watching a train wreck in slow motion. TNT should have posted some sort of warning.
Forget the uneven officiating and Lebron’s theatrics, in those last 3 minutes, the Heat proved to be unquestionably better than the Bulls. Their defense was stifling, allowing the Bulls only 4 shots (made only 1). Their offense was a crushing combination of James and Wade hitting well-defended shot after well-defended shot, three of them from beyond the arc. Their superstars shined. Meanwhile, Rose lived out a 3-minute nightmare committing 2 turnovers, the cardinal sin of fouling Wade on a 3-pointer and a critical missed free throw.
It’s no wonder that most Bulls’ fans went to bed feeling more than a little traumatized by the whole thing.
What next?
This is the topic du jour and will continue to be for the next several months. The Bulls won 62 games during the regular season. They’re a very good team, but Miami is better. Conventional wisdom says that the Heat will be THE destination for quality role players, eliminating their current “Achilles heel” of quality depth. The job of Gar Forman and John Paxson will be to somehow leapfrog the Heat. This won’t be easy.
Ideally, the Bulls like every other team, would like to have big-minute players at each position who are effective at both ends of the court. Of course, few teams do, but currently they only have two players who match this job description…Rose and Deng. Adding one more of these is priority #1. All of the Bulls’ significant players are signed for next season with the exception of veteran big man Kurt Thomas who will be 39 next season. They may need to replace him, but otherwise their dealings should be related to upgrades.
As most know, leaving coaching aside, there are basically 4 ways to improve an NBA team – the draft, trades, free agency and the development of existing players. The Bulls have 2 first-round picks in the upcoming draft, but they’re #28 and #30 (last) so you’d need to be a big time optimist to believe that any real help will be found through the draft. It’s more likely that one or both of these picks will be traded, and if they’re used, it may be for a Euro-type player who would not join the team for a year or two (similar to what they did with rookie center Omer Asik who was a 2nd-round pick in 2008).
Rose, Noah, Deng, Gibson, Brewer and Asik are young players with great work ethics. Rose and Deng both added three-point range to their games this season and figure to become more consistent. Noah, Gibson and Asik need to work on their strength and offensive games, but Brewer is the player to keep an eye on.
Brewer is already an elite defender at the shooting guard position with great size (6-7), quickness and instincts. His glaring weakness is outside shooting. His form is ugly due to a broken arm he suffered when he was a kid that doesn’t allow him to keep his elbow and hand in a straight line to the rim. I don’t know how much he has worked on his shot, but as Jim Furyk has proven in golf, even if your stroke is a bit funky, if you work on it long enough, you might just be able to make chicken salad from chicken bleep. If somehow Brewer could shoot as well for a season as he did in these playoffs (43% on 3s), the Bulls would find their 3rd two-way player in their own backyard. Well, a guy can dream, can’t he?
Free Agency and Trades
Because the NBA’s labor contract expires after this season, the salary cap and trade rules are up in the air, and as a result, so are free agency and trades. Assuming the new contract is shaped in a similar fashion to the current one, the Bulls will be over the salary cap so their free agent dealings will be limited to the “Mid-level Exception (MLE)” and minimum-salary players. The MLE allows a team that’s over the cap to sign one or more free agents up to a combined maximum first-year salary equal to the average salary in the league (currently about $5million).
In terms of the MLE, most of the talk has centered around shooting guards Jason Richardson of the Orlando Magic, Aaron Afflalo of the Denver Nuggets and J.R. Smith, also of the Nuggets. There’s a problem with each of these players.
Richardson is an unrestricted free agent who was paid $14.4million this season. Coming off a season where he averaged about 16 points per game on 45% shooting (40% on 3s), it’s unlikely he’ll be able to match his 2010-11 salary, but since he’s still in his prime (age 30) expecting him to settle for the MLE salary is a iffy at best.
Afflalo is an uber-efficient scorer (2nd among all shooting guards with a positively stellar 62.0% true shooting %) with adequate size (6-5) and is a known as a good defender. While he’s not really a guard who’s particularly good at creating his own shot, he’s far better at this than Bogans. The problem with Afflalo is that he’s a restricted free agent, so Denver can keep Afflalo by simply matching any offer Afflalo receives. Particularly with Denver’s former franchise player Carmelo Anthony gone, most believe that the Nuggets will not let Afflalo get away.
Smith has mad skills. When he’s on, he’s unstoppable…inside, outside, doesn’t matter. He has good size at 6-6 and is capable of playing sound defense. He’s an unrestricted free agent, and while he made $6.8million last season, most observers believe that he’ll be available for the MLE…maybe even less. In his 7-year NBA career, Smith has averaged 19 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists per 36 minutes. Right about now you’re probably asking, “OK, what’s the catch?” Just one...Smith is both a certifiable head case and a basketball idiot. Despite his obvious talent, other than his rookie season, none of his head coaches have ever seen fit to start Smith more than 25 games or play him for more than 28 minutes per game. He was actually a Bull for 6 days in 2006 as part of the sign-and-trade deal for power forward P.J. Brown. Paxson kept Brown and got rid of Smith just as quickly as he could. There are many who believe that the Bulls should take the risk on Smith. Personally, I don’t see it.
As always, the trade possibilities are limited only by the imagination and fans tend to have very vivid imaginations. You’ll hear titillating names like Dwight Howard and Ray Allen. My advice is to ignore this talk. Howard is next season’s Carmelo, but the Bulls are poorly positioned for either an offseason of in-season trade since Joakim Noah’s on something called “base year compensation” which will make him hard to trade during next season. Allen is a modern athletic marvel, who at 35 remains the prototypical shooting guard. The thing is, he has a $10million player option for next season that includes a 15% “trade kicker” (so he’d get 11.5% if traded). The Bulls don’t have any cap space to sign him as a free agent and don’t figure to have the assets the Celtics would want to trade for him.
One name you’ll hear a lot is Memphis Grizzlies’ shooting guard O.J. Mayo. Mayo was the 3rd overall pick of the 2008 draft so he’s got some talent. At 6-4 he lacks the size of an ideal shooting guard, but he does provide the “secondary creator” ability that many feel the Bulls need…he can score by putting the ball on the floor. He’s an adequate, but by no means great 3-point shooter (36% this season). Defensively, he’s not as good as either Bogans or Brewer, but worlds better than Korver. Rumor had it that the Bulls tried to trade for Mayo during the season, but were unwilling to part with either Gibson or Asik.
The other shooting guard who seems to be on the Bulls’ radar is the Houston Rockets’ Courtney Lee. Like Mayo, the Bulls were rumored to have interest in acquiring Lee at the trade deadline, but the Bulls weren’t willing to part with one of their young bigs. Like Afflalo, Lee is not really a “create his own shot” guy, but is a good all-around player who has adequate (6-5) size and can hit the 3-point shot (41% this season).
While I don’t think Richardson’s will settle for MLE money, if he does, there’s a good chance he’ll be a Bull. It remains to be seen whether the unsuccessful end to the season has changed the Bulls’ front office’s mind on trading Gibson or Asik and whether those other teams are still interested.
Boozer
It seems that everyone wants to trade Boozer. Although I totally get why you might want to trade him, it’s pretty crazy to believe that there’s any sort of market for him. The plain fact is that Boozer at age 29 is coming off one of his worst statistical seasons, easily had his worst postseason performance and is going on the 2nd year of a very lucrative 5-year contract. Seriously, you couldn’t possibly be in more of a buy high-sell low situation. Boozer performed like a MLE player but is priced at 3 times that amount. What exactly do you figure you’ll get?
As for me, I believe we’re stuck with him. As an unabashed aficionado of defensive excellence, Boozer unquestionably offends my sensibilities. Still, unlike the last Bulls’ albatross contract (Ben Wallace), at least Boozer seems to be a good teammate. My guess is that Boozer is here to stay, at least for next season. This said, if Boozer can be used in any ort of upgrade trade, count me in.
Noah
I have to admit that I’m surprised that many fans are turning on Noah. I also should say that Noah’s my favorite Bulls’ player. For those who want to see him traded, I’d be shocked if it happened in the next 12 months. In fact, I’ll be shocked if it happens at all for someone other than Howard. Like him or don’t, he’s a defensive genius (no other big I’ve seen is as versatile a defender) and an important electrical power source for the team. Above all, Noah’s a gamer. Do I second-guess Thibodeau sitting him in the 4th quarter of game 5? No, I first-guessed him. Whenever the game is on the line, I want Noah in there. As I see it, Thibodeau made a bad decision by keeping Kurt Thomas in the game.
Noah is an extraordinary defender who can score 10+ points per game without taking any shots from your true scorers. How many players can you say that about?
Korver-Brewer
If the Bulls can find a shooting guard that can both start and finish games, they’re going to need to unload either Korver or Brewer. Ideally, which one exits depends on whether the newly-acquired player is stronger at offense or defense. In any case, if the Bulls are fortunate enough to acquire a 30+ minute shooting guard, one of Korver or Brewer is gone.
In retrospect
The Bulls had one helluva season…way better than any of us had any right to expect. Personally, they provided me with more entertainment than I could ever have imagined back in October. For this I sincerely thank them…it was a great gift.
They’ve now raised the bar. Next season we will reasonably expect the Eastern Conference Finals. The best guess is that the Heat will be waiting. Will we be good enough this time?
I want the answer to be yes. Get to work, GarPax.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Note to Bulls Fans: We're OK
I usually throw some stats and stuff into what I write, but today this is pretty much just going to be limited to observations and opinions.
A lot of Bulls' fans seemed to be on the brink of euphoria after the Bulls easily handled the Heat in game 1. After the Heat just about completely shut down the Bulls in game 2, many of those same fans can now be seen shivering in the corner with their heads between their knees, muttering incoherently and just trying to catch their breath.
Seriously folks, you need to get a grip.
My guess is that the problem most Bulls' fans are experiencing is that they can't get past their expectations, most of which were set before this season began. Just about every expert saw the Heat as an instant juggernaut...an irresistible force that would simply cut through the NBA like a hot knife through butter. Never in the history of the league have 3 players of the caliber of James, Wade and Bosh, in the prime years of their careers, joined forces. Despite the fact that the Heat had some problems over the course of the season, many fans have continued to live in a state of dread for that day when the stars would come out and exert their inexorable will, blowing past any unfortunate team in their path.
On the other side, not much was expected of the Bulls. In September, most fans felt that a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals would be an absolute wet dream. As the team continued to achieve, we began to believe, but always lagged behind the reality.
So here we are, facing the superstar-laden Miami Heat and a lot of fans are flat-out intimidated. We just can't get over those expectations of what the season would be for the Heat and for the Bulls. When the Bulls easily won game 1 people got giddy 'cause, despite what the Bulls did in the regular season, their inferiority complex about the Bulls and the programmed concept of the Heat's invincibility led them to that state and gave them hope they didn't expect to have.
Game 2 crashed fans back to earth and back into their pre-programmed inferiority complex.
Relax folks, while it certainly would've been better to go to Miami up 2-0, this series is far from over.
In game 1, the Heat learned that they can't simply rule the day on reputation. In fact, when they gave only ordinary effort, they got their doors blown off by the Bulls. In game 2, the Heat came out with as much energy as they could muster and even played some nice team basketball. They also dusted off Udonis Haslem who has been on the shelf with a foot injury since November. When healthy, Haslem's legit...kind of a veteran version of Taj Gibson.
It was a potent combination for the Heat, but it only resulted in a victory because the Bulls scoring trio of Rose, Boozer and Korver shot under 30%. Some credit should be given to the Heat's defense, but the truth is that the Bulls missed a lot of very makeable shots and were awful at the free throw line. If this continues to happen, then yes, the series is over. The thing is, it's in the Bulls hands to win or lose this series, not the all-powerful Heat's.
The Bulls remain the better defensive team and the better rebounding team. This won't change. The Heat have scored 82 and 85 points in the first 2 games of the series. They averaged 102 per game in the regular season. Although the mighty Heat pulled away from the Bulls in the 4th quarter of game 2, they did it while scoring only 14 points in the that quarter...14! In the second halves of the first two games, the Heat have only been able to muster 71 points. Clearly, the Bulls know how to D-up Miami when it matters.
This series is going to be tough and is by no means a sure thing. The Heat are a favorite for a reason and they've wrestled away home court advantage...for the moment. However, my advice is that you forget your pre-conceived notions about these teams. There is no "super team" in this fight. Both teams are very good, but both are also somewhat flawed. It's going to be a helluva series and I still feel very good about the Bulls in 7.
They can do this.
A lot of Bulls' fans seemed to be on the brink of euphoria after the Bulls easily handled the Heat in game 1. After the Heat just about completely shut down the Bulls in game 2, many of those same fans can now be seen shivering in the corner with their heads between their knees, muttering incoherently and just trying to catch their breath.
Seriously folks, you need to get a grip.
My guess is that the problem most Bulls' fans are experiencing is that they can't get past their expectations, most of which were set before this season began. Just about every expert saw the Heat as an instant juggernaut...an irresistible force that would simply cut through the NBA like a hot knife through butter. Never in the history of the league have 3 players of the caliber of James, Wade and Bosh, in the prime years of their careers, joined forces. Despite the fact that the Heat had some problems over the course of the season, many fans have continued to live in a state of dread for that day when the stars would come out and exert their inexorable will, blowing past any unfortunate team in their path.
On the other side, not much was expected of the Bulls. In September, most fans felt that a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals would be an absolute wet dream. As the team continued to achieve, we began to believe, but always lagged behind the reality.
So here we are, facing the superstar-laden Miami Heat and a lot of fans are flat-out intimidated. We just can't get over those expectations of what the season would be for the Heat and for the Bulls. When the Bulls easily won game 1 people got giddy 'cause, despite what the Bulls did in the regular season, their inferiority complex about the Bulls and the programmed concept of the Heat's invincibility led them to that state and gave them hope they didn't expect to have.
Game 2 crashed fans back to earth and back into their pre-programmed inferiority complex.
Relax folks, while it certainly would've been better to go to Miami up 2-0, this series is far from over.
In game 1, the Heat learned that they can't simply rule the day on reputation. In fact, when they gave only ordinary effort, they got their doors blown off by the Bulls. In game 2, the Heat came out with as much energy as they could muster and even played some nice team basketball. They also dusted off Udonis Haslem who has been on the shelf with a foot injury since November. When healthy, Haslem's legit...kind of a veteran version of Taj Gibson.
It was a potent combination for the Heat, but it only resulted in a victory because the Bulls scoring trio of Rose, Boozer and Korver shot under 30%. Some credit should be given to the Heat's defense, but the truth is that the Bulls missed a lot of very makeable shots and were awful at the free throw line. If this continues to happen, then yes, the series is over. The thing is, it's in the Bulls hands to win or lose this series, not the all-powerful Heat's.
The Bulls remain the better defensive team and the better rebounding team. This won't change. The Heat have scored 82 and 85 points in the first 2 games of the series. They averaged 102 per game in the regular season. Although the mighty Heat pulled away from the Bulls in the 4th quarter of game 2, they did it while scoring only 14 points in the that quarter...14! In the second halves of the first two games, the Heat have only been able to muster 71 points. Clearly, the Bulls know how to D-up Miami when it matters.
This series is going to be tough and is by no means a sure thing. The Heat are a favorite for a reason and they've wrestled away home court advantage...for the moment. However, my advice is that you forget your pre-conceived notions about these teams. There is no "super team" in this fight. Both teams are very good, but both are also somewhat flawed. It's going to be a helluva series and I still feel very good about the Bulls in 7.
They can do this.
Friday, May 13, 2011
The One We’ve Been Waiting For
Generally, I write to an audience that doesn’t closely follow the NBA. They’re Bulls’ fans mind you, it’s just that most wouldn’t dream of spending a couple precious weekend hours during the regular season watching a Raptors-Twolves game (come to think of it, neither would I). With them in mind, I did playoff write-ups on the Pacers and Hawks to explain things like the late-season emergence of the Pacers’ Tyler Hansbrough and to sing the praises of the wondrously-erratic Hawk Josh Smith.
The Bulls now face the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. You don’t need to be an NBA fan to know about the Heat. In fact, you don’t even need to be a sports fan. Ask some little old lady on the street who plays on the Heat and she’ll get at least 2 correct answers.
The Heat Dynasty – Year 1
When Lebron James announced that he was “taking his talents to South Beach” to join forces with superstar guard Dwayne Wade and brought All Star power forward Chris Bosh along for the ride, the national media quickly declared a dynasty. Never in the history of the league had 3 in-their-prime players of this magnitude played on the same team. Many predicted that the Heat would shatter the ’95-’96 Bulls regular season record of 72 wins.
When the Heat got off to a disappointing 9-8 start to the season (making the record-breaking 73-9 somewhat unlikely), the national media wrote it off as a normal adjustment phase. This looked like a good call as the Heat promptly ran off a 12-game winning streak and won 21 of their next 22 to tie them with the Boston Celtics atop the NBA’s Eastern Conference standings at 30-9. It took a little time, but the Heat were where they were supposed to be and the rest of the league would soon be mere specks in their rearview mirror.
Didn’t happen. The Heat played well, going 58-24, but struggled against the top teams (2-9 vs the Celtics, Bulls, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks).
The national story line
Despite the fact that the Bulls won more games than any other team this season, beat the Heat all three times they played them and have home court advantage, the Heat are the betting favorites in this game. Why? A couple reasons.
First, it’s generally believed that the Heat have looked like the better team through the first 2 rounds of these playoffs. Both the Bulls and the Heat dispatched their first-round opponent in 5 games, but the Heat beat the Philadelphia 76ers who were considered a significantly better team than the Pacers. In the second-round, the Bulls often struggled to get past the lightly-regarded Hawks, while it only took the Heat 5 games to take out the Celtics, considered by some to be a legitimate championship contender. James and Wade have been brilliant in these playoffs, each averaging 26 points and 5 assists per game. Lebron has stepped up his rebounding, grabbing 9.4 per game and Wade pulled down nearly 8 boards per game...eye-popping for a guard. Bosh has provided solid support, averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds.
The second reason the Heat are favored is that many believe that the regular season was nothing more than a long and tedious pre-requisite to what this team was built for…winning championships. This is why James left Cleveland and Bosh left Toronto. It’s why all 3 of the Heat’s stars took less than the max money each would have received if financial considerations were put at the forefront. The Heat trio is superbly-talented and highly-motivated. The playoffs are where the stars truly shine and it remains unarguable that the Heat lead the NBA in star power. They simply will not be denied…it’s their destiny.
So who else plays for the Heat?
It’s a fair question, and since Heat Head Coach Eric Spoelstra is allowed to put 5 players out on the floor, he probably will. The Heat’s supporting cast is pretty much made up of two types of players – big guys who try to set screens, rebound, block shots and not shoot and little guys who hang out at the 3-point line waiting for a wide open shot.
Leading the big guys is 6-9 center Joel Anthony, an undrafted free agent who has been with the Heat since the ’07-’08 season. He’ll pull down some rebounds for them (5.7 per game in the playoffs), but his thing is blocking shots…he leads the Heat with 16 in the 10 Heat playoff games. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is 7-3 and was once a heckuva player, making 2 All Star game appearances back in the day. After 12 years in Cleveland, 7 of them playing alongside James, he signed with the Heat on a minimum salary contract (over a $10million pay cut…yes, he’s the prototypical “ring-chaser). He was never fast, but he’s stunningly slow at age 35, but he can still hit the occasional open jumper if you leave him open. At age 38, 6-9 forward/center Juwan Howard certainly has experience on his side. The Heat are Howard’s 8th NBA team, though in truth he’s played for several of those 8 more than once. Look for him to play about 7 minutes/game and set a couple screens…sad, but that’s what it’s come down to for Howard. Lastly, there’s Udonis Haslem. Haslem may be the Heat’s 4th-best player, but has been sidelined with a foot injury since November. He made his return in the Heat’s game 4 win in Boston and played 3 minutes of hideous basketball earning him a DNP-CD (did not play-coach’s decision) in the deciding game 5. Haslem could be a “wild card” in the series with the Bulls.
Of the little guys, Mario Chalmers and recently-acquired veteran Mike Bibby will get most of the point guard minutes, but don’t expect much in the way of playmaking from them…they’re in the lineup to occasionally bring the ball up the court and then wait at the perimeter if needed. Chalmers can defend some. Bibby hardly even tries anymore. If neither Chalmers nor Bibby are hitting their 3s, Spoelstra may send journeyman chucker Eddie House into the game for a heat-check.
One Heat bench player who doesn’t fit either of the 2 categories is 6-8 forward James Jones. Jones is a good 3-point shooter who has been very good in these playoffs. He was on fire in game 1 of the Celtics series, knocking down 5 of 7 treys and scoring 25 points…he actually outscored James by 3. Rounding out the Heat bench is veteran 6-8 small forward Mike Miller. By design, Miller should be the Heat’s #4 player (he’s the 4th-highest paid) and resident 3-point marksman (40% for his career), but has had an injury-plagued season. Jones has pretty much taken over Miller’s role on the team.
Matchups
This figures to be a very non-traditional series matchup-wise. For the Bulls, Luol Deng figures to be on James nearly all the time and Carlos Boozer will likely be assigned to defend the Heat’s non-shooting big man (mostly Anthony and Ilgauskas). Beyond that it’ll probably be a mix and match situation. Wade figures to see mostly Bogans and Brewer, but Derrick Rose may guard him as well, particularly when Kyle Korver is in the game with Rose. Noah figures to have Bosh. This figures to be a much better defensive series for Korver since, as has been mentioned, the Heat almost always have someone in their lineup whose job it is to hang out at the 3-point line…that’s your guy, Kyle.
For the Heat, the obvious key is to stop Rose. Rose will probably start out being defended by Chalmers, with Wade on Bogans. This leaves Wade will be free to provide aggressive weakside help, one of many things at which he excels. Wade will also defend Rose and particularly late in games, James will take his turn in an effort to get Derrick to give up the ball. Boozer could be defended by either Anthony or Bosh, but if Boozer gets hot, it’ll be Anthony (the better defender).
In the interest of full disclosure
I don’t like the Heat, but most of all I don’t like Lebron James. He’s a magnificent basketball player, the most talented on the planet, but first and foremost he’s an actor playing the Lebron role in an effort to increase the market share of the “Lebron brand.” I should point out here that, unlike most James-haters, I didn’t like him in his last few years with the Cavaliers.
Watching him on and off the court, I often wonder how long James rehearses his myriad facial expressions. I particularly enjoy his “determination” and “astonishment” looks…the latter can be seen every time he either misses an inside shot (I was fouled) or is called for a foul (Are U Serious?). I honestly believe that James brushes his teeth as if he’s on camera. Great player and totally self-absorbed, narcissistic douchebag.
I also don’t like Chris Bosh, but again it’s for reasons that are different from many. I really liked his game in Toronto and believed that in his last season there he was on the brink of superstardom (24 points, 11 rebounds and a superstar-level 25.0 Player Efficiency Rating…Wade posted a 25.6 PER this season). Why oh why would a 25-year old kid with that kind of talent turn himself into a “ring-chaser?” What a freakin’ waste.
I actually like Dwayne Wade and believe Chicago fans have treated him harshly. Did he use the Bulls for leverage last summer? Almost certainly. I might have done the same thing in his shoes. I like him because he’s a tough-minded competitor who is a basketball player first and a pitchman only in his spare time.
Oh yeah, I’ve always hated Pat Reilly.
Conclusion
Buckle up, kids…this series is going to be an “E” ticket ride, or as the kids say, “Epic.” I’ve heard many opine that this series will determine the future 5 years of the NBA Eastern Conference, but I wouldn’t go that far. However, the Heat and the Bulls figure to be elite teams for the foreseeable future and one of them is going to walk away from this one with a mental edge.
For each team, the last time they took the court, they were had what could be viewed as “statement victories,” yet some belittled their achievements. The Heat had their emotional home win over the Celtics, but some pointed out that the Celts were handicapped by their one-armed point guard, Rajon Rondo. The Bulls totally dominated the Hawks in Atlanta, but some said that the Hawks lackluster effort in front of their home fans just proved that they remain nothing more but pretenders. As for me, they looked like two elite teams doing what they needed to do when they needed to do it.
I find myself compelled to pick the Bulls in 7. The fact that I’m a Bulls’ fan and also having a genuine dislike for the Heat undoubtedly have entered into my thinking. Also, my coaching bias tells me that a well-coached team can overcome superior talent (y’all saw Hoosiers, didn’t ya?). I’m convinced that Thibodeau is the better coach, or at least the coach who is allowed by his players to do the better coaching job.
I can’t wait for this one to start.
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