So you say you want to be a NBA General Manager? First, a question. Do you feel lucky…well do ya punk? (Sorry, couldn’t resist the Dirty Harry reference.)
Don’t get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for the talents of NBA GMs and all the hard work they put in. They need to know the game, be able to tell the difference between an athlete and a basketball player (many fans have a problem with this), put together their rosters with one eye on talent and one on chemistry and manage the team’s now global front office staff. They spend just about all their waking hours attending games and watching video, dealing with pain-in-the-ass agents and their prima donna clients, and of course, incessantly “working the phones” in an effort to improve their teams. They need to manage their time, the team’s operational budget, the salary cap…and oh yeah, they better manage to win, because if they don’t, they won’t be a NBA GM for long.
Here’s the thing. It’s pretty much taken as dogma in the NBA that you must have a superstar player in order to win a NBA Championship. In the last 20 years, all but one of the teams that have won championships have had either Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett…undeniable superstars all. The 2003-04 Detroit Pistons are the one exception, and while Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace were not superstars, they do have 16 All Star Game appearances between them. Their 5th starter, Tayshaun Prince, is a 4-time All-Defensive 2nd Team honoree. In any case, those Pistons are the exception that proves the rule.
Trust me, you need a superstar to win it all…and this is where it’s better to be lucky than good.
Lottery Luck
So how do you get yourself a superstar? The surest (but not all that sure) way to do it is by having the very first pick in the NBA Draft Lottery. Hakeem, Duncan and Shaq were all first overall picks, as were current superstars Lebron James, Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose. Then again, so were Glenn Robinson (1994), Joe Smith (1995), Michael Olowokandi (1998), Kwame Brown (2001), Andrea Bargnani (2006) and Greg Oden (2007)…like I said, it’s no sure thing.
Olajuwon went to Houston the year before the NBA installed the lottery system. They won a coin toss (no luck there). Portland not only famously lost the toss, but then more famously selected Kentucky center Sam Bowie rather than that Jordan kid. From that day forward, Houston won 2 titles, Jordan’s Bulls 6 and the Trailblazers zero.
Duncan was a case of good luck born of bad luck. Y’see, before there was Tim Duncan in San Antonio , there was David Robinson. During Robinson’s 14-year Hall of Fame career, he made 10 All Star teams, but he didn’t make it in 1997 because he back problems and then broke his foot in December of ’96. As a result the Spurs went from winning 59 games in 95-96 to 20 wins in 96-97. As bad as this was, they only had the 3rd-worst record in the league, but the ping-pong balls went their way and they got the #1 pick…Duncan.
The Orlando Magic was able to draft Shaq in ’92 because a) they had a bad team the previous season (2nd worst in the league) and b) their 15.15% chance at the #1 overall pick (this was before the current weighting system went in) came in. Note: the next year, the Magic got really crazy lucky. With Sahaq, the team improved to a 41-41 record and just missed the playoffs. Despite their 1.52% chance at the #1 pick they got it. They then traded down (giving up Michigan’s Chris Webber) to pick up Memphis State’s Penny Hardaway at #3. It almost worked, but then Hardaway had a series of injuries and Shaq moved on to win 3 titles with the Lakers and one with the Miami Heat.
Lebron of course, was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2003 draft. The Cavs had tied with the Denver Nuggets for the worst record in the league at 17-65. Each had a 22.5% chance at the first pick. The Cavs got James, but unlike the Trailblazers disastrous 1984 consolation prize of Sam Bowie, the Nuggets at least got to take home Syracuse stud Carmelo Anthony at #3 (as in ’84 the 2nd pick was the “dog” of the draft, but this time it was the Pistons who got bit when they took Darko Milicic at #2). Note: with the notable exception of Kevin Durant, a bona fide superstar taken at #2, that second pick is pretty much star-crossed…you should take a look at it sometime…it’s scary.
The Magic got yet another crack at #1 in 2004. This time they deserved it and were one of the few worst teams in the league who actually won the lottery. Even so, they only had a 1 in 4 chance. High school center Dwight “Superman” Howard was the prize. Good thing they won it, because he was the only true stud in that draft.
After the Magic’s previously-mentioned horseshoe-up-the-arse draw of the #1 pick in 1993, the NBA changed the weighting of lottery picks to make it more difficult for the only moderately bad teams to get the top pick. This didn’t stop the Chicago Bulls from converting their 1.7% chance into gold in the 2008 lottery. Despite having only the 9th worst record in the league in the ’07-’08, their ship came in and his name was Derrick Rose, a Chicago kid and the NBA’s youngest and newest superstar. As a die-hard Bulls fan, I naturally believe that we completely deserved this good fortune…but yeah, we were lucky as hell (and don’t forget that we didn’t take Michael Beasley, who many thought was the better NBA prospect…there’s that #2 curse again).
“It Was a Very Good Year” Luck
Sometimes you can find yourself a superstar after the first overall pick. I already mentioned how Durant who the Seattle Supersonics (now the Oklahoma City Thunder) took with the #2 pick in 2007 beat the bridesmaid curse and how the Bulls were able to draft Jordan at #3. Yeah, sometimes it happens, but you usually need a deep draft and for the stars to align in your favor. And as I see it, if you manage to get yourself a superstar with any pick after the #3 overall, you can proclaim your genius all you want, but I’m calling “LUCKY.”
The Miami Heat had the 5th overall pick in 2003 (the Lebron draft) and were all kinds of fortunate to draft a future superstar in Dwayne Wade. This was a great draft, giving the NBA perennial All Stars James, Melo, Bosh and Wade. Seriously, this almost never happens. After you’re done looking through the disappointments who were picked at #2, check out #5. It’s not pretty, but our next superstar is a notable exception.
In the 1995 draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves turned the 5th overall pick into one of the most amazing players of our generation…high-schooler, Kevin Garnett. Solid NBA role players Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess and Jerry Stackhouse were taken with the first 3 picks. This was before drafting high school players became fashionable (and obviously before it was outlawed). As great as he was, the T-Wolves couldn’t win with Garnett (and certainly haven’t been able to do it without him). This led to Garnett being traded to the Boston Celtics (more on this in the “Lucky by Trade” section).
The story of the Lakers acquiring Kobe Bryant sort of bridges the “Very Good Year Luck” and “Lucky by Trade” sections as does how the Dallas Mavericks ended up with Dirk Nowitzki. The Lakers didn’t draft Bryant in 1996…the Charlotte Hornets (now in New Orleans) did…with the 13th overall pick of the 1996 draft…yeah, #13 can sometimes be super-lucky. The Lakers traded the Hornets center Vlade Divac, knowing that they were about to sign Shaq as a free agent which made Divac eminently disposable. I give the Lakers some credit for making all the right moves here, but Kobe lasting ‘til the 13th pick is what made a trade for Divac possible. I don’t even want to run you through the guys who were taken ahead of Bryant.
Dallas Mavericks’ forward Dirk Nowitzki was another superstar that came cheap draft-wise. Somehow Nowitzki was available for the 9th overall pick in 1998, the somehow having a lot to do with the prevailing skepticism about Euro-players at that time (similar to the skepticism about high-schoolers that allowed Garnett to drop so far). Nowitzki was selected by the Milwaukee Bucks and promptly traded by the Bucks to the Mavs for the 6th overall pick, Robert “Tractor” Traylor. Note: the Mavs also got the 18th pick, Pat Garrity in the deal…Garrity lasted longer in the league than Traylor. Good day for Dallas. Milwaukee…not so much.
Lucky by Trade
When GMs talk about their philosophy on trades, they all tell you the same thing. They’re not looking to “win” trades…ideally, they hope that the trades they make will help both teams. Or so they say.
If you’re a NBA GM and you’re strategy is to trade for the superstar you need, well frankly, you’ve got yourself a bad strategy. It doesn’t happen often, and when it does, it needs to be one of those right-place-right-time strokes of good fortune.
In 2004 the Heat were in the right place at the right time when they traded for Shaq. The Heat sent Caron Butler, Brian Grant, Lamar Odom, a 2006 1st round draft pick (Jordan Farmar) and a 2007 2nd round draft pick (Renaldas Seibutis) for the most dominant big man in the game. Doesn’t seem fair and it wasn’t. It was just a matter of Los Angeles becoming not big enough for both Kobe and Shaq. Result: Heat wins a title.
Of course, we shouldn’t waste any sympathy on the Lakers. They’ve gone on to win 3 titles without Shaq (and counting) largely because they ended up being that team that was in the right place at the right time when the Memphis Grizzlies decided it was time to “dump” the salary of their borderline-superstar Pau Gasol. The Grizz essentially traded Gasol for the expiring contract of hot-garbage center Kwame Brown, strictly mediocre guards Javaris Crittenton and Aaron McKie and a bunch of future late first-round picks. It’s unclear whether Lakers’ GM Mitch Kupchack wore a mask when he closed this deal.
As the Lakers did with the Grizzlies, the Celts caught the Minnesota Timberwolves (and their GM Kevin McHale…a legendary Celtics player and unabashed Celtophile) at a weak moment. Unable to win with the incomparable Kevin Garnett, McHale decided to change directions and traded the high-priced KG to the Celtics for the offensively-talented (but defensively awful) young center Al Jefferson, a bunch of journeymen players and two 2009 first round picks that turned into Wayne Ellington and Jonny Flynn, neither of whom are ever going to be anything remotely special. McHale has since left the T-Wolves. He’s a very welcome guest at Celtics’ headquarters.
Free Agency
If trading for a superstar is difficult and requires some good fortune, acquiring one via free agency is virtually impossible…for about 80% of NBA franchises.
In the past 20 years, I can only recall 3 franchises that have signed a legitimate superstar free agent…the Lakers, Knicks and Heat. Two of these signings happened this past offseason with Lebron “taking his talents to South Beach” (and bringing borderline-superstar Chris Bosh with him) and Amare Stoudemire taking his game to the Big Apple. The other was Shaq when he left the Magic to play for the Lakers (and pursue his acting career).
Are the Knicks lucky to be located in a huge market? The Heat for being located in a place where both the weather and the ladies are hot? The Lakers for having both of these advantages? Maybe not, but if you happen to be the GM of one of these franchises, you’re clearly a lucky guy.
As a Bulls’ fan, it strikes me as funny that fans of other top teams always seem to harp on how the Bulls got Rose off a 1.7% lottery chance…as if they got their superstar(s) in some meritorious way. Whether you got that guy by a coin toss, a fire sale from a struggling franchise, a late pick who beat the odds or your ping-pong ball happened to have legs, it’s luck all the same.
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