Atlanta Hawks: Familiar Faces, Puzzling Team

The Atlanta Hawks surprisingly sent Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic home early, taking their first-round series 4-2.  In the end, it was a matter of quantity over quality…an ensemble cast triumphing over the transcendent superstar.  Now the Hawks face the Chicago Bulls and soon-to-be-MVP, Derrick Rose in round 2.  Can the Hawks manage an encore?

Unlike the Bulls’ first-round opponent, the Indiana Pacers, the Hawks roster includes a lot of familiar names.  First, there are former Bulls Kirk Hinrich and Jamal Crawford, two guards whose games couldn’t be more different, though both can be effective.  Then there are All Stars, Joe Johnson (5 straight All Star selections) and Al Horford (two straight).  Many of us studied up on Johnson’s game this past offseason when rumor had it that the Bulls had pegged him as one of their main free agent targets (the Hawks re-signed him to a 6-year, $124million contract…the largest contract signed last summer) .  The Hawks also feature 6-9 forward Josh Smith, a terrific athlete who earned 2^nd-team NBA All-Defensive Team honors last season.

Rounding out the Hawks 8-man rotation are centers Zaza Pachulia (6-11, 240) and Jason Collins (7-0, 255) and 6-9 forward Marvin Williams, the second overall pick of the 2006 NBA draft.   

Streaky or bi-polar?

The Hawks finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference in the ’09-’10 season with a solid 53-29 record, taking out the Milwaukee Bucks in their first-round matchup 4-3 before being swept in 4 straight by the Magic.  With Johnson’s signing, the Hawks basically stood pat this season.  However, with the Miami Heat, Bulls and New York Knicks looking much improved due to offseason free agent acquisitions, most experts picked the Hawks anywhere between 4 and 6 in the East this season.

Atlanta got out of the gate quickly, winning their first 6 games this season, including victories over the playoff-bound Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers, leading some to wonder if they had underestimated this season’s edition of the Hawks.  Since the Hawks finished the season at 44-38, they were a .500 team after their season-opening streak.

In addition to their 6 wins to start the season, Atlanta also had two 5-game win streaks and a 4-gamer.  They finished their regular season in exactly the opposite fashion to how they started with a season-worst 6-game losing streak.  In fact, the Hawks lost 14 of their last 22 games, far and away the worst closing record of any playoff team.  This is why, despite their 5^th seed in the East, many felt that Atlanta was the weakest of the playoff teams.  Nearly every expert predicted that they would be quickly dispatched by the Magic.

Which Hawks team will show up?

That’s the $64,000 Question.  When they’re good, they can play with just about anyone and they can stay hot for a while.  They clearly turned themselves around to defeat the Magic, but I can’t say that I saw them as world-beaters in the first round.  The Magic, who led the league in 3-point shots made during the regular season, shot an abysmal 26.2% from the arc in round 1 (the worst 3-point performance of any of the 16 playoff teams).  In fairness, the Hawks deserve some credit here, but in the end the Magic pretty much shot their way out of this year’s playoffs.

On paper, Atlanta is similar to the Pacers in that they have several players who can go off on you if you’re not careful.  Johnson, Horford, Smith and Crawford each had multiple 30+ point games this season.  However, they have an offense that’s primarily perimeter-oriented, something the Bulls defend exceptionally well. 

Defensively, the Hawks are good and Johnson, Horford, Smith and Hinrich are all plus defenders.  Pachulia at center is a world-class “flopper” and can annoy the heck out of you.  Crawford is their glaring defensive weakness.  He is truly awful.  You’ll see him start out in a first-rate defensive stance, but throughout his career, his heart simply has never been into working hard at the defensive end.  Maybe it’s just me, but whenever I see Jamal in that nifty defensive stance of his, I get the distinct feeling that he’s thinking about what he’s going to do the next time he gets the ball.

Key Matchups

Hinrich-Rose.  Hinrich came to the Hawks at the trade deadline, being traded for Mike Bibby.  Hinrich’s by far a better defender than Bibby, but even if his hamstring is OK (MRI today), he’s no match for Rose.  On offense, Hinrich can hit the open 3-pointer, so Rose will need to play him honestly.  However, Hinrich has never been much of an off-the-dribble scorer, which should make Rose’s defensive job easier.

Horford-Noah.  Although Horford will start the game at power forward with Pachulia at center, look for Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau to give Noah, rather than power forward Carlos Boozer, the defensive assignment on the multi-talented Horford.  Down the stretch in games, the Hawks generally “go small” and Horford moves to center.  The former college teammates are good friends but fierce competitors.  Horford will still “get his,” but Noah will make it very tough work. 

Johnson-Bogans/Brewer/Deng.  Though Johnson starts games at shooting guard, his offensive game is strikingly similar to the Pacers’ small forward Danny Granger.  Both are 6-8, 225.  Both have very good ball-handling skills for their size and both are accurate shooters who use their size effectively to get off their shots.  Seriously, they’re basically the same player except that Johnson’s a better defender and doesn’t go into delusional whiney rants when his team is eliminated from the playoffs.  Bogans will start out on Johnson and it will be a tough cover since Bogans will be giving up 3 inches.  Brewer will also guard Johnson, but when the Hawks go small and Johnson moves to small forward, the assignment will go to Deng.  My guess is that this “tag team” approach will make it tough on Johnson.  On defense, Johnson should have an easy time with Bogans and Brewer (since neither does much offensively).  Johnson will have to work hard defending Deng, though.

Smith-Deng/Boozer.  Smith will start at small forward, but move to power forward in Atlanta’s small lineup.  The Smith-Deng matchup could be a tough one for Deng.  Smith is bigger, stronger and a much more explosive athlete.  However, Deng is the smarter (Smith has a history of doing things on the court that make you go “Huh?”) and less turnover-prone player.  Both are exceptional defensive players.  In fact, many are predicting that Deng will take Smith’s small forward place on this season’s 2^nd-team NBA All-Defensive team.  This will be a great match-up to watch and I expect the two to pretty much cancel each other out.  The Smith-Boozer matchup concerns me on both ends.  Smith can be effective both inside and out, and if Smith gets going from the 3-point line (33% from the arc), it could hurt.  On offense, Boozer will need to take better care of the ball than he did in the Pacers series.  If he can do this, he should be able to take advantage of his weight/strength advantage and pound Smith near the basket.

Crawford-Rose and Korver-Crawford.  Crawford doesn’t start games, but averages over 30 minutes per game and is almost always on the floor at the end of games. Hawks’ head coach Larry Drew will do everything possible to avoid having Crawford defend Rose for obvious reasons.  Hawks’ reserve guard Jeff Teague may get some significant time if Hinrich can’t go.  However, Crawford is a very tough cover and when he gets it going can be virtually unstoppable.  On defense, Crawford figures to be assigned to Korver, particularly late in games.  Look for the Bulls to take advantage of this matchup, running Crawford through the usual gauntlet of screens.  Crawford and his slight 6-6, 185-pound frame will absolutely hate this.  If Korver’s shot is on, he’s going to have another big series.

As with most of the games against the Pacers, the games in this series will probably come down to which team can impose its will on the other in the closing minutes.  The two teams take very different approaches to “crunch time.”  For the Bulls, Rose is the undisputed “go-to guy” and one of the best in the NBA.  The Hawks take more of a committee approach with Johnson, Smith and Crawford (in that order) taking most of the key shots.

Though this Hawks team is capable of extending the Bulls to more than 5 games, my guess is that they won’t.  The Hawks simply have no answer for Rose while the Bulls have reasonable answers for the Hawks’ key players.  Also, while the Hawks got by the Magic, they didn’t do it by playing their best basketball.  I’m not convinced that they’ve completely gotten over the funk that caused them to close out the regular season so poorly.

Bottom line?  While it wouldn’t surprise me if the Hawks win a game at home, I have a feeling that this one’s gonna be a Bulls’ sweep, so that’s my official prediction and I’m stickin’ to it.

Judge Lifts NFL Lockout

U.S. District Judge Susan Richard Nelson issued an injunction against the National Football League yesterday which essentially declared the lockout of their players to be illegal.  If allowed to stand, Judge Nelson's action would lead to a resumption of the employment relationship between NFL teams and their players. 

As expected, the league immediately filed for a stay of the judge's order with the Circuit Court.  This stay is sort of like calling a time out that would last as long as it takes for the Circuit Court to rule on the league's appeal of Judge Nelson's opinion.

Norris and LaGuardia Scratching Their Heads

Once upon a time, prior to 1932 to be exact, the US was a remarkably bad place for unions.  Not only did unions have virtually no right to collectively bargain, but often when they organized a strike, the pro-business federal courts would issue injunctions declaring that their strikes were illegal.  Organizers and striking workers were thrown in jail.

This went on until Congress passed the Norris-La Guardia Act in 1932.  This law was mostly known for outlawing "Yellow Dog" contracts (employer-employee agreements not to unionize), but it also virtually removed the ability of a federal court to issue injunctions related to labor disputes.  This latter provision of the law was undoubtedly intended to protect unions from strike-breaking federal court actions, but it was worded in a way that protected both sides from intrusions by the courts.

Still, it's kind of ironic that Norris-La Guardia relief is now being used by the NFL.

What's Next?

The best guess is that the NFL will get their stay.  If so, it's expected to take the Circuit Court about a month to consider the league's appeal.  During that time, everything will be in limbo.  There's some question as to whether negotiations would even be legal since, the players having voted to decertify their NFL Players' Association (NFLPA), there is no union with which to legally bargain.

The NFL's stance is that the players are wasting precious time attempting to obtain through litigation what they should be trying to get through the collective bargaining process.  Of course, they're right about this.  Still, you can hardly blame the players for going the legal route.  As I wrote at the start of the NFL-NFLPA negotiations, in terms of economic leverage, the NFL owners hold virtually all the advantages.

Of course, there's a chance that the Circuit Court will deny the league's request for a stay.  Some have opined that it would mean a return to "business as usual."  As usual?  Not by a longshot. 

How would free agency, trades and signing draft picks work with no union in place and no collective bargaining agreement to govern?  Would all players be free agents?  If the owners refused to resume their business activities, would they be charged with collusion?  I'm sure there are many other unprecedented issues that would arise.

We should all know about the stay by the end of the week.  If the answer is no, buckle up...it's going to be a wild ride.

Bull-Pacers: I've seen enough

The Indiana Pacers have played the Chicago Bulls hard.  Sometimes they've also played the Bulls dirty.  The result is that, while the Bulls hold a 3-1 lead in the series, all the games have been close and have come down to the final few possessions.  

Pacers' forward Danny Granger has received some well-deserved national attention and performed admirably, averaging 22 points and 6 rebounds in the series.  Second-year point guard Darren Collison has turned some heads with a brilliant 17-point 9-assist game 1 and then showed his toughness by quickly returning from a nasty ankle sprain suffered in game 2.  Role players like guards A.J. Price, Mike Dunleavy and Dahntay Jones have all had their moments.  Lastly, the Pacers big men, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts and Tyler Hansbrough have played physical defense and somehow managed to only have their thuggish flagrant fouls called via long distance.

I salute all things Pacers...players, coaches, front office and fans.  You've exceeded expectations.


It's been a real slice, but...


It's time for the Indiana Pacers to get the hell out of my playoff world.  Frankly they're starting to kill my Bulls buzz and I don't appreciate it.  The games have gotten progressively uglier with total points scored going from 203 and 186 for the 2 games in Chicago to 172 and 173 for the 2 games in Indy.  In games 3 and 4 combined, the Bulls shot 38.3% from the field and the Pacers shot 38.6%.  If allowed to continue, this could set NBA basketball back decades.


It's also getting dangerous out there, although only if you're on the Bulls.  While it's not unprecedented for an NBA player to have an ordinary foul retroactively turned into a flagrant foul by the league office, I'm pretty sure that the Pacers' Foster broke new ground in game 3 by having two fouls in the same game transformed into flagrants by Commisioner David Stern's video watchdogs.  Most impressive.

One of those, a vicious and completely purposeful elbow-whip off the top of Bulls' foward Luol Deng's shiny head, could have warranted ejection.  The other, a smack in the face of Bulls' superstar Derrick Rose, was notable because Pacers' forward Hansbrough flagrantly-fouled Rose even more egregiously than did Foster.  Hansbrough somehow got away clean in the game and afterwards.  

Perhaps Hansbrough's apparent diplomatic immunity emboldened the Pacers' McRoberts (people get him and Hansbrough mixed up all the time) who decided that Rose's dunk in the second quarter of game 4 warranted a forearm to Rose's face as Rose went back on defense.  Darned if he wasn't right...the referees on site somehow missed this.

Honestly, I don't blame the Pacers for trying to instill in the minds of Bulls' players, and particularly Rose, the thought that, if you go strong to the basket, we will make it a painful experience.  I mean, I read all about Pavlov's dogs and such in high school.  I can also appreciate McRoberts' thinking that a punk move like that dead-ball forearm shiver might just be enough to get Rose to retaliate and maybe they'd both get thrown out of the game...a decidedly  favorable exchange for the Pacers.  The Pacers are just trying to win...any way they can.

Again, kudos to the Pacers, this time for their indomitable and unprincipled competitiveness.  However, the fact remains that the Pacers don't belong in the second round of these playoffs and the Bulls do.  Both teams have places to go and people to see.  In the Pacers' case, it should be home to their families.

Game 5

Tomorrow night the two teams will face off at Chicago's United Center.  Rose, who sprained his ankle in game 4, is expected to play.  Deng's headache should just about be gone and Bulls' star forward Carlos Boozer is so overdue that he should be about ready to burst. 

The Bulls have yet to play a good all-around game in this series and certainly the Pacers have had a lot to do with this.  Look for the Bulls to come out of the gate fast, forcing the action and taking the ball to the rim at every opportunity.  Look for the Pacers to foul...early, often and of course, hard.  On defense, I don't see the Bulls doing anything tricky...just well.

Unlike the previous 4 games, the Bulls will take control of this one in its early stages and won't let go.  They'll do this because they're clearly the better team and because, like the rest of us, they know that it's time for Indy to get back to auto racing.

Bulls 103 - Pacers 85.

Carlos Boozer: Knocking on the Doghouse Door?

He was the Bulls’ big free agent addition this past offseason and the long-sought-after low-post scoring threat that the Bulls have needed for years.  However, fans and media have become increasingly critical of his play.  With the playoffs upon us, Boozer has an opportunity to change his detractors’ minds.  His first playoff game as a Bull threw gasoline, not water, on the fire.

Carlos Boozer came to the Bulls this past summer with a NBA reputation that could be fairly characterized as a “mixed-bag.”  Despite a spectacular college career at Duke where he average 26 points and 15 rebounds a game and was part of a NCAA National Championship team, NBA talent evaluators were unimpressed.  Due to his lack of athleticism and only average power forward size (6-7 ¾ without shoes), he dropped all the way to the second round of the 2002 NBA draft where he was taken by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Boozer almost immediately began proving the doubters wrong, scoring 10 points and grabbing 7.5 rebounds while averaging only 25 minutes per game in his rookie season.  As a NBA sophomore, Boozer was joined by this high school kid named Lebron and the two formed what looked like it would be a Cavs’ “dynamic duo” for years to come.  In his second season, Boozer averaged 15.5 points and 11.4 rebounds per game and posted a team-high Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 20.8 (yeah, a couple points better than Lebron’s 18.3).

Because Boozer was selected in the second round, he became a free agent after his second NBA season.  For obvious reasons, the Cavs badly wanted to re-sign Boozer, but in a controversial series of events that until “I’m taking my talents to South Beach” gave Boozer “Most Hated Opposing Player” status among Cavaliers’ fans, Boozer signed a big-money multi-year contract with the Utah Jazz.  Cavs’ ownership believed that Boozer lied to them, essentially tricking them into moves that enabled Boozer to get his big payday.  This episode caused many to label Boozer as being both less than trustworthy and selfish.

In six seasons with the Jazz, Boozer established himself as a NBA star, averaging over 20 points and 10 rebounds a game and was twice selected to the NBA All Star Team.  When healthy, he was clearly one of the best big men in the game.  The problem was that he wasn’t all that healthy, missing 138 regular season games during his 6 years in Utah...that’s an average of 23 per season and added “injury-prone” to the list of Boozer descriptors, and if you ask any Jazz fan, Boozer was never too keen about rushing back from his many injuries.

While Boozer’s time with the Jazz cemented his credentials as a superbly-skilled offensive player, they also exposed his defensive shortcomings.  In the mind of his head coach in Utah, Hall-of-Famer Jerry Sloan, Boozer’s poor defensive play was mostly a matter of “want-to.”  “Boozer’s got to work more on his defense,” Sloan said in 2005, “He can’t step out on the floor and expect to get 19, 20 points a game, and his man’s getting 22 or 23. I told him he’s got to do a better job defensively. And he can do a better job… But he’s got to make a commitment to defending.”  Truth is, Boozer never has.

Boozer signed a 5-year contract with the Bulls in July for an estimated total value of $75million.  With this kind of money, expectations were understandably high.  Boozer didn’t exactly get off to a good start with Bulls’ fans when he broke his hand in an early-October household accident just as training camp was starting.  As a result, he missed the first 15 games of the Bulls’ 2010-11 season.  He missed another 8 games during the season due to ankle problems…ironically, that’s a total of 23 regular season games missed, exactly what he averaged in Utah.

When he’s been able to play for the Bulls this season, he’s pretty much been Carlos Boozer, though he’s clearly not having one of his better seasons.  While his 17.5 points per game are right around his career average (17.3), his scoring efficiency is well below his career standards (field goal percentage of 51% this season versus 53.7% career and true shooting percentage of 54.2% versus 57.7%).  His rebounding numbers are also down (9.6 rebounds per game versus 10.1) as is his PER (18.8 versus 20.6).

Unfortunately, his defense has been pretty much down to his career standard.  Bulls’ fans now completely understand Sloan’s earlier quote from 2005.  Other than grabbing defensive rebounds, sometimes snatching them from teammates’ hands, Boozer just isn’t all that interested in playing defense.  He’s quite possibly the worst big man I’ve ever seen when it comes to providing off-ball help to beaten teammates.  He’s also reluctant to stray very far from the basket when defending his own man or to “show” on pick-and-rolls.  Boozer simply doesn’t appear willing to do anything on defense that might jeopardize his chance at cleaning the defensive glass.

The fact that the Bulls boast the league’s best defense AND Boozer plays significant minutes is truly a wonder.  If the Bulls defense was a picture from which you were asked to pick out what doesn’t belong, Boozer would be the obvious choice…OK, Kyle Korver too.

Which brings us to the “doghouse” owned by the Bulls’ fans and media.  Recent occupants have included Kirk Hinrich, Jannero Pargo, Luol Deng (just recently released) and Keith Bogans.  There are several ways to gain entrance, but as Deng learned, probably the quickest is for fans to decide that you’re not playing up to your contract.  Others include giving less than your absolute best on the court and being labeled as “injury-prone.”

Boozer appears to be a prime candidate, but with career playoff numbers of 20.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per game, most fans have yet to banish the big man to their canine quarters…but make no mistake, they’re getting close.  If he puts up another couple 4-for-11 shooting, 6 rebound games like he did yesterday against the Pacers, it’ll be “Move over, Keith.”

A Tribute to Keith Bogans

Keith, I don’t think that you’ll be getting many of these, so you might want to save this one…maybe even buy a frame or something.

You came to the Bulls this past summer, signing for about $400,000 over the league minimum and about 1/3 of the amount that your fellow new Bulls’ shooting guards, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer, were getting.  Although new Bulls Head Coach Tom Thibodeau was a fan dating back to your brief time together in Houston, most observers figured that you’d be nothing more than veteran depth on a young team that while improved, wasn’t expected to make any kind of loud noise on the 2010-11 NBA scene.

Of course, you worked hard to prepare yourself for the coming season, same as always, and play whatever role coach Thibs wanted you to play.  Since you’d been around the NBA block a time or two, you knew about Chicago and its fans.  Great sports town, love their teams and have a particular fondness for “blue collar” type players who may not be the most talented, but give it their all when they’re out there…definitely your kind of fans.

The Trouble “Starts”

Late September comes around and you find that Brewer is still suffering from the hamstring injury he suffered last season.  As a result, Thibs puts you in the starting preseason lineup and you’re absolutely shooting lights out…over 50% for field goals and a kinda crazy 50% on 3-pointers.  Your preseason true shooting percentage, one of those new high-tech scoring efficiency stats, is an absolutely ridiculous 70%, by far the best on the team…hell, it was probably some kind of world record.  Yeah, you didn’t score a lot, but Thibs didn’t really want you to.  Besides, how many points are you gonna to score when you only take 3 or 4 shots a game?

All in all, things had started off very, very nicely.

The regular season begins and Brewer’s still not ready so Thibs keeps you in the starting lineup.  Your team, who most experts pick as the 4^th or 5^th best in the Eastern Conference, faces a positively brutal early schedule…damn near all playoff teams and most of ‘em on the road.  Big-money free agent forward Carlos Boozer busted his hand and will miss the first month…great.  In early December, the Bulls are barely above .500 and it appears that you wasted all of your shooting mojo on the preseason.  You’re shooting an anemic 37% from the field, and as the starting squad’s designated spot-up 3-point specialist, you’re converting a pathetic 26% from the arc.

Brewer’s back and he’s playing more minutes than you, but he’s taken exactly one three-point shot for the season and apparently this isn’t what Thibodeau wants from his starting shooting guard.  Korver’s shooting well, but it seems that the only thing that makes Thibs sicker to his stomach than watching Kyle Korver try to defend opposing guards is watching a tired Kyle Korver try to defend guards…so he limits Korver’s minutes and keeps trotting you out there with the starting unit.  The natives are getting restless and looking for someone to blame.  For an increasing number of Bulls’ fans, you’re that someone.  Your poor shooting and low scoring numbers are clearly among the reasons they’ve pinned a “Kick Me” sign on your backside, but the fact that you’re a starter seems to be what the fans and media just can’t get over.

And yeah, I was one of ‘em.

You deserved a lot of the criticism.  I mean, you truly were playing poorly on offense.  Still, we were kind of silly to put so much emphasis on the fact that you got to have your name and college announced at the beginning of games.  The truth was that you were a sub who just so happened to play his minutes at the beginning of each half.

Everything Changes…Well, Not Everything

It was December 4th, you were coming off a loss to the Celtics the previous night and hosted the Houston Rockets.  The Bulls blew a lead, but came back to win in overtime.  You had an OK game, scoring 6 points on only 3 shots in your typical 16 minutes.  It wasn’t pretty, but having lost 5 of your last 8 and 3 of your last 4, it was just good to get the W.  Even being the blame-magnet you had become, no one could fault you for failing to see that your team was about to go on one of the most improbable runs in the history of Chicago sports.

The Rockets win was the start of a 7-game winning streak that the team built into a 14-2 stretch.  Early in the new year, we looked up to find that the Bulls had pretty much locked up the NBA’s Central Division.  The team was back where we thought they should be.  Fans were more or less content and the media was writing nice things, particularly about Thibodeau and the team’s freshly-minted superstar Derrick Rose.

Maybe it was because all the newfound Bulls’ love was being directed elsewhere, but you got none of it.  Instead, this was when the hypothetical “How good would the Bulls be if they only had a real starting shooting guard instead of Bogans?” gained what would become an enduring popularity.  Nobody seemed to notice that you had re-discovered your shooting touch during the team’s year-end turnaround…probably because you were still only scoring 4-6 points a night.

Losses at New Jersey and Philly calmed folks down a bit, but then the team got crazy.  We all know the rest of the story.  Beginning with that early-December OT victory over Houston, the team went an incredible 53-12 to finish with 62 wins, best in the league.  In the process, the Bulls were THE story of the 2010-11 NBA season, Rose became a lock for the MVP award, Thibs started clearing a place on the mantle for his Coach of the Year trophy and even long-time whipping boy Luol Deng was being mentioned for postseason defensive honors.

Alas, while it’s a great time to be a Bull, if you’re into acclaim from your fandom, it’s still not that great to be Keith Bogans.

Sorry Man, You Did OK

Last summer, the announcement of your signing pretty much elicited a group yawn.  Those who had heard of you knew you were a classic NBA journeyman…a defensive specialist who seldom made mistakes, could hit your share of open 3s and was a positive veteran presence in the locker room.  You’ve been pretty much as advertised and the fans might have embraced you if not for Thibodeau sticking in the starting lineup.  In any case, once you became the starter you stayed there, starting all 82 regular season games.

Like the Bulls, your season can be divided into two parts…the 17 games before that Houston overtime win and the 65 games after it.  In those last 65 games, you quietly were a positive force on defense and even put up some pretty nice offensive numbers.  You didn’t score much (4.4 points per game), but you had a very good reason…you didn’t shoot much (3.6 shots per game).  Keeping in mind that you only averaged 17 minutes per game over those last 65, it seems fair to point out that you actually averaged a more respectable 9.4 points per-36 minutes. 

Even including those awful first 17 games, while you didn’t score much, you were very efficient and pretty darn accurate.  Your 38.0% from the three-point line was 3^rd on the team behind only Korver and C.J. Watson and well above the league average of 35.8%.  Your effective field goal percentage of 55% was second only to center Omer Asik (and damn near all of his shots were dunks) and only Joakim Noah and Korver posted a better “true shooting percentage” than your 56%.

Oh yeah, your 1.0 turnovers per-36 minutes were the lowest on the team.

Regardless of what the fans and media say, given the nature of the Bulls roster, the team needed you to have a good season and you did.  Were you a critical reason for the Bulls’ surprising success?  No, but you did contribute both by what you did (defense and accurate shooting) and what you didn’t do (take stupid or forced shots, turn the ball over or miss games).

So I apologize for what I said about you early in the season…you’re a pro and you’ve given us the best you have.  And while just about everyone continues to look forward to the day that you’re no longer starting for the Bulls, here’s hoping that come June, you’ve got some new jewelry to wear.  No one can take that away from you.

Bulls-Pacers Playoff Preview

Although some teams are still jockeying for playoff seed positions, the #1 vs #8 first-round series in the Eastern Conference is set.  It’s a Central Division matchup with the Chicago Bulls (59-20) taking on the Indiana Pacers (37-43).

Clearly, the Bulls are heavy favorites to advance to the conference semi-final round, but the Pacers have been on a bit of a run in the last month of this season, winning 10 their last 15 games, including a 115-108 overtime victory against the Bulls on March 18.  During this stretch, the Pacers have also defeated the New York Knicks (twice), the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks…all playoff-bound teams.  You could make a case that the Pacers are currently playing better basketball than the Philadelphia 76ers (currently the 7^th seed), the Knicks (#6) and the Hawks (#5).

Net, the Pacers may not be quite the “cupcake” Bulls’ fans would like them to be.

The Pacers are led by 6-8 forward Danny Granger.  The 27 year old Granger is in this 6^th NBA season and has been selected to one Eastern Conference All Star squad (‘08-‘09).  Granger’s natural position is small forward, though like his Bulls’ small forward counterpart Luol Deng, he can play the power forward position when Pacers’ Head Coach Frank Vogel decides to go small.  While he has excellent size, Granger who’s averaging 20.5 points per game this season, does most of his damage from the outside and boasts a more than respectable 38.3% conversion rate on his 3-point attempts.  During crunch time, Granger is the Pacers “go-to guy.”

The Granger-Deng matchup should be both fun to watch and important to the end results.  They’re virtually the same size and both are good two-way players, with Granger having the edge on offense and Deng on defense.  Granger is the Pacers best player and Bulls’ Head Coach Tom Thibodeau calls Deng the team’s “glue.”  Both will work hard to tire the other, and ideally, get them in foul trouble.  It’s the most compelling “battle within the war” in this series.

Big centers have given the Bulls trouble in the past and the Pacers have a good one in 7-2, 278 pound Roy Hibbert.  In his 3^rd NBA season, Hibbert leads the Pacers in rebounding (7.6/game) and is 3^rd in scoring (12.7 per game).  He’ll be a tough matchup for Bulls’ center Joakim Noah, who will be giving up 3 inches and nearly 50 pounds to Hibbert.  However, as big as he is, Hibbert hasn’t played well against physical defenders, so look for Bulls’ veteran big man Kurt Thomas to get some minutes pounding on Hibbert.  Also, this will be Hibbert’s first playoff experience and it may be telling to see how he handles the increased inside contact generally allowed in the postseason.

The Pacers offense is run by 2^nd-year point guard Darren Collison.  Collison leads the team in assists (5.1/game) and is 2^nd in scoring at 13.2 points/game.  Although Collison can just about match the Bulls’ all-world point guard Derrick Rose in terms of quickness, at only 6-0 and a wispy 160 pounds, Rose has a serious advantage in both size and strength.

Most Pacers' observers believe that the key to the Pacers’ late season rush has been the play of 2^nd-year power forward Tyler Hansbrough.  That’s right, the very same “Psycho T” from those great North Carolina NCAA teams.  The 6-9, 255 pound Hansbrough still brings a manic energy to the floor every night, but until recently, his uber-activity was more style than substance.  However, in his last 23 games, Hansbrough seems to have hit his stride, averaging nearly 16 points and 7 rebounds per game.  Hansbrough shapes up to be the Pacers’ “X Factor” in the series.

Rounding out the Pacers’ starters is rookie shooting guard Paul George out of Fresno State who the Pacers selected with the 10^th overall pick in last year’s NBA draft.  At 6-8, he has freakish size for his position and possesses freakish athleticism to go along with it.  However, George is more of a raw talent than a skilled basketball player.  An excellent long-range shooter in college, George has yet to adjust to the NBA 3-point distance (just under 30% from the arc).  Still, he figures to be a tough matchup for the Bulls’ shooting guards.  This could be particularly true of the Bulls’ Kyle Korver, who at 6-7 usually hopes his size advantage at SG will compensate for his lack of athleticism.  Defending George, he’ll need to rely on veteran savvy…or prayer.

Like the Bulls, the Pacers roster has quality depth.  This depth includes their “Duke Alumni Association” of 6-9 guard Mike Dunleavy, 6-10 forward Josh McRoberts and 6-6 guard Dahntay Jones.  Dunleavy’s a heady veteran who only recently lost his starting position to George.  McRoberts is a “stretch” big man and a very efficient scorer with a field goal percentage of 54.1% and 38.3% from behind the 3-point line.  Jones doesn’t see many minutes, but averages 17.8 points per- 36 minutes played. 

The Pacers bench also features Brandon Rush (leads the Pacers with 41.3% 3-point accuracy), 6-11 veteran center Jeff Foster, the prototypical blue-collar journeyman big, and a classic “chucker” in guard A.J. Price, who ranks second on the team (behind only Granger) with 14.6 shot attempts per-36 minutes  despite the fact that he has a pretty damn woeful shooting percentage of 35.7% and an equally awful 27.3% from the arc.

In terms of style of play, the Pacers play at a much faster pace (94.6 Pace Factor, 6^th in the NBA) than the Bulls (90.4 Pace Factor, 22^nd in the league) so controlling the speed of the game will be a priority for both teams.  If, as is normally the case in the playoffs, the games become half-court contests, this should favor the Bulls.

Both teams would like to play “inside-out” on offense with the Bulls feeding Carlos Boozer in the post and the Pacers dumping the ball in to Hibbert.  Both defenses will work hard to root these players out from the position they want and forcing them to settle for mid-range jump shots.  If they’re successful, Boozer can still be somewhat effective.  Hibbard can’t.

In the playoffs, barring foul trouble most coaches shorten their rotations, generally going with only 7 or 8 players.  Both the Pacers and the Bulls may be exceptions to this rule since each has 11 players who have some game.  These battles of the benches should be interesting  The Pacers bench is loaded with scorers while the Bulls is loaded with defense…sort of an irresistible force-immovable object matchup.

Comparing their regular season records, this one shouldn’t be close, but I expect good, competitive games.  Not surprisingly, the difference will be Rose…he’s been the difference-maker for the Bulls all season.  Collison won’t be able to handle him, particularly when the game is on the line.  As Bulls’ color analyst Stacey King often reminds us, Rose is simply “too big, too strong, too fast…too good,” and this should be particularly true against the undersized Collison.

Bulls in 5.