Thursday, May 5, 2011

Boozer by the Numbers


As the playoffs began, I wrote that it looked like Bulls forward Carlos Boozer might be knocking on the (fans') "doghouse" door.  After 7 playoff games, it's clear that he's firmly established his residence there, though we hope not permanently.  During last night's game 2 win over Hawks, Boozer was booed repeatedly by the fans, causing teammate Joakim Noah and head coach Tom Thibodeau to plead for fans to give Carlos a break...yeah, that'll work.

Hurt, Bad or Both?

Boozer suffered a "turf toe" injury during the second quarter of the Bulls' closeout victory of the Indiana Pacers 9 days ago.  No doubt, this can be a very painful and limiting injury, particularly for an athlete the size (6-9, 258lbs) of Boozer.  However, Boozer's detractors are quick to point out that he didn't exactly shine against the Pacers before the injury (10 points, 10 rebounds and 3 turnovers per game for the series).

Last summer, Boozer signed a 5-year contract estimated at $75million, the richest in team history.  He came with some baggage, chiefly a reputation for being injury-prone and a less-than-willing defender...he's lived up to his rep on these counts.  However, he also had a solid track record for being a near-elite low-post scorer and a beast on the glass.  While his 17.5 points/game average this season was right around his career number (17.3ppg), he was down in nearly every other category and his 54.2% "True Shooting Percentage (TS%)" was the second-lowest in his 9-year NBA career.

Stats Though 7 Playoff Games

Still, one of the main reasons the Bulls paid what they did for Boozer was the playoffs, where the game becomes much more of a half-court affair and the value of reliable inside scoring is at a premium.  Despite the fact that scoring is generally down during the playoffs, Boozer came into this postseason with an impressive playoff resume, averaging nearly 20 points and 13 rebounds per game and putting up an impressive "Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of just under 20 in his previous 4 playoff appearances.

So far has very definitely not been so good for Boozer in these 2011 playoffs.  Stunningly bad is a term that comes to mind.  In 7 games, Boozer has averaged just over 31 minutes per game (close to his season average of 31.9) with points and rebounding numbers holding steady at the 10-10 he posted against the Pacers.  Since he figured to be the clear-cut #2 scoring option (behind Derrick Rose) in these playoffs, the fact that he is currently 4th on the team in playoff points (behind Rose, Luol Deng and Noah and just ahead of Kyle Korver's 9.4 who plays less than 2/3 of Boozer's minutes) has to be a concern for Thibodeau. 

The truth is that Boozer's 10-10 is misleading...he's played much worse than this.  His TS% so far in these playoffs is a downright embarrassing 42.7%, ranking him 10th of the 12 players on the Bulls' roster, ahead of only C.J. Watson (under 10 minutes per game) and Omer Asik (only 5 minutes per game).    He's second on the team (behind Rose) with 16 turnovers, but his turnover percentage of 15.9% is higher than Rose's 13.8% and is the worst among the team's starters.

Assists?  Steals?  Blocks?  No matter where you look, it's bad.  When you roll all the stats up John Hollinger-Style, you come out with a 9.6 playoff PER...4th worst on the Bulls playoff squad and dead last among players averaging 10+ minutes per game.

Go Carlos!

My purpose here isn't to trash Boozer, but rather to make the point that Boozer's performance so far in these playoffs isn't simply a matter of an 18 point scorer dropping to 10 points.  It's more serious than that.  If the total quality of Boozer's playoff game doesn't begin to at least vaguely resemble the postseason Boozer of old, I believe that the Bulls chances for a title very nearly become slim and none.

Those of you who attend the games have a right to boo whoever you want.  Personally, I wish you wouldn't boo Carlos.  We need this guy to come around...badly.  Besides, anyone who thought that the booing would somehow motivate Boozer to return to form pretty much saw that plan crash and burn last night.

This shouldn't be a problem for the next 2 games in Atlanta, but I encourage all true Bulls' fans to begin practicing their game 5 Boozer cheers.  C'mon, make that "Z" harder...harder, so Carlos can hear it!

Well, it couldn't hurt.

No comments:

Post a Comment