Thursday, December 22, 2011

Your 2011-12 Strike-Shortened Chicago Bulls

Last season, the Bulls surprised the NBA world.  Picked by most of the experts to be a middle of the pack playoff team, they won more regular season games (62) than any other team in the league.  In the NBA as in most major professional sports, when you surprise folks, you win awards and the Bulls were no exception.  Derrick Rose took home the Most Valuable Player award, rookie head coach Tom Thibodeau captured Coach of the Year honors and General Manager Gar Forman shared the Executive of the Year award with Miami Heat President Pat Riley.

Unfortunately, the upstart Bulls couldn't pull off the ultimate surprise, falling to the Heat 4-1 in the Eastern Conference finals.

A Very Good Offseason Played in Two Parts

With two late first round draft picks (#28 and #30 overall), little was expected to come from the June 23rd draft.  What the Bulls needed was veteran help, particularly at shooting guard, and didn't figure to want two rookies taking up valuable roster spots.  Many predicted that the Bulls would trade one or both of these picks.  Again, they surprised.

The Bulls traded the 28th pick and their 2nd-rounder to move up to #23 where they selected 6-10 Euro-League forward Nikola Mirotic.  Some found the selection odd, not because Mirotic isn't a great prospect (some compare him to a young Dirk Nowitzki, the Dallas Mavericks' superstar forward), but because the 20 year old wunderkind had recently signed a long-term deal with the prestigious RealMadrid club that included a prohibitively-high buy-out option for the first 3 years.  For the Bulls, this works out just fine.  Mirotic can polish his game at someone else's expense and should be ready to come over just about when the Bulls can give him meaningful minutes.  After the draft, Mirotic revealed that the only reason he entered the draft was because the Bulls had told him they were interested...nice.

With the 30th overall pick, the Bulls selected Marquette guard-forward, Jimmy Butler.  Butler is 6-7 with an exceptional work ethic, very good defensive instincts and more than reasonable offensive skills.  While Butler only figures to get the occasional minutes in mop-up situations this season, early indications are that he just might be a player.

Eight days after the draft, on July 1, NBA owners announced that they were locking out the players until a new collective bargaining agreement was signed.  The lockout lasted until December 9th.  In the interim, teams could not approach the players or their agents...it was simply a 5+ month time out.

Once the free agency began earlier this month, the Bulls situation was simple.  All of their players were signed with the lone exception of 39 year old third-string center Kurt Thomas.  What the Bulls needed was a legitimate shooting guard.  In the 2010-11 season, the team had filled the position by committee...Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver shared the job.  While Bogans started every game for the Bulls last season, both Brewer and Korver played more minutes.  The 62 wins notwithstanding, they needed to put this patchwork approach behind them.

Because the team is over the league's salary cap, their alternatives for filling the shooting guard hole were limited - they could sign a free agent for up to the $5 million "mid-level exception" or they could try to obtain a player via trade. 

Throughout the offseason, it seemed that every Bulls' fan had his or her own favorite shooting guard candidate.  Personally, I wasn't very optimistic.  The names most often mentioned fell into 3 categories: over-the-hill big names like Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter, pure "gunners" like Jamal Crawford and J.R. Smith who had well-deserved reputations for finding defense beneath them and excellent players who only the delusional believed would accept the $5million or be made available in a trade.

The early results of the free agent signing period confirmed my fears.  My top two free agent candidates, Caron Butler and Jason Richardson, signed elsewhere for well above the mid-level exception amount.  Nothing seemed to be happening on the trade front.  Bulls' fans, me included, were getting nervous.

Then about two weeks ago, an intriguing rumor came across the wires.  The Pistons and their three-time All Star shooting guard Richard "Rip" Hamilton were working on a buyout of the $12.5 million Hamilton was to be paid this season.  There were even whispers that Hamilton's team of choice was none other than my beloved Bulls.  I don't usually put much stock in rumors, but I badly wanted to believe in this one.

On December 12, the buyout was formally announced.  Hamilton "tweeted" that he was looking at 3 teams, the Bulls being one of them.  It turned out that this was only a tease and Rip quickly signed a 2-year contract with the Bulls for the $5 million ($10 million total) mid-level exception.

The Bulls got their shooting guard.

Then yesterday, the Bulls capped off their offseason by announcing the signing of Rose to a 5-year contract extension.  While this wasn't a surprise, it was easily the most significant move the Bulls have made since, well, when they drafted Rose.

Hoping for a Short, but Sweet Season

The 2011-12 regular season has been shortened to 66 games.  To get these games into the time available, teams will need to play nearly one more game each week.  Back-to-back games will be more frequent and each team will need to play at least one back-to-back-to-back stretch.  A deep roster will be a decided advantage...and the Bulls probably are the deepest team in the NBA.

As NBA fans know, most teams use an 8-man rotation during the regular season then shorten it come playoff time.  A few employ a 9-man rotation.  The Bulls use 10 players every game.  This season, the starters are expected to be Rose (point guard), Hamilton (shooting guard), Luol Deng (small forward), Carlos Boozer (power forward) and Joakim Noah (center).  The "Bench Mob" consists of C.J. Watson (point), Ronnie Brewer (shooting guard-small forward), Kyle Korver (shooting guard-small forward), Taj Gibson (power forward) and Omer Asik (center).  All of these subs figure to play 11+ minutes per game, with Brewer and Gibson getting somewhere around 20 minutes.  The "deep bench," players who often won't play at all in games, will be made up of the rookie Butler, resident cheerleader and pseudo-assistant coach Brian Scalabrine and point guard John Lucas III.

Some thoughts on each of the Bulls rotation players:

Rose: You all know the story...he went from a struggling rookie (though he was Rookie-of-the-Year) to an All Star in year 2 to a truly elite player and MVP last season.  No one's sure what's next, but the kid just keeps working his tail off so it should be great.

Hamilton: He'll be 34 in February and is coming off a season of discontent where he was among the players who boycotted practice in an effort to get his head coach fired (which of course resulted in making it impossible for Pistons' brass to ax the head coach until after the season ended...not too bright, Rip).  He's always been in great shape and this looks to be the case this season as well.  Hamilton is an extremely smart player who knows where to be and what to do when he gets there.  He's a good and willing defender and he can score, averaging 17.7 points per game over his 12-year NBA career.  Though you'll hear that his numbers dropped off last season, this was entirely due to him playing only 27 minutes per game (his per-minute stats were right on his career averages), his lowest minutes total since his rookie season.  I expect the addition of Hamilton to be a huge plus for the Bulls this season.

Deng: Though many claim that last season was Deng's best, statistically he was right around where he's always been.  He did however, add a 3-point shot to his game, taking about 4 per contest and making a very respectable 35% of them.  Coach Thibodeau calls Deng his "glue guy" and he's indispensable to the team's success.  Deng was 3rd in the league last season in minutes played.  The Bulls need similar durability from him this season.

Boozer:  Boozer was the team's big free agent acquisition a season ago.  Injuries have plagued Boozer throughout his career and unfortunately, last season continued the trend...he missed 23 regular season games and was a non-factor through most of the playoffs nursing a "turf toe.".  When he was completely healthy, he was pretty effective on offense.  On defense, well, let's be kind and just say he's never been much of a defensive player.  A healthy Boozer gives the Bulls a much-needed inside offensive weapon.

Noah: Like Boozer, Noah battled injuries over the course of last season and into the playoffs (he missed 34 regular season games).  When healthy, Noah is an energy source for the Bulls and he's one of the best defensive centers in the game.

Watson:  Watson's job is to spell Rose for about 10-12 minutes each game and he's ideally suited to the role.  Like Rose, he's he can carry the offense for stretches and is a better 3-point shooter (39.3% last season) than Rose.  He's also a tenacious defender.  Nice player to have on the roster.

Brewer: Brewer is an exceptional athlete and an elite defender.  His problem has always been his outside shooting (due to a childhood accident, he's unable to get his right elbow to the proper inside position).  Brewer came on offensively late in the season and in the playoffs (he made a kinda stunning 43% of his 3-pointers last postseason).  If he can become more of an offensive threat, the Bench Mob will be in great shape.

Korver:  Korver isn't particularly big...or quick...or fast.  Though he tries hard, he's a bona fide defensive liability.  However, like KFC, he does one thing very right and that's shoot the rock.  Coming off his pretty much insane and record-setting 53.6% 3-point performance during the '09-'10 season, his 41.5% last year was a bit of a disappointment...but it's still very damn good.  Korver's role last season was twofold - be the primary scoring option on the bench mob and play shooting guard with the starting unit down the stretch of games.  With Hamilton on board, Korver will likely see his minutes cut and only see spot action late in games.

Gibson:  Gibson plays defense, rebounds the ball and blocks shots like a NBA starter.  Like Brewer, he's a little offensively-challenged, but still manages to score about 12 points per 36-minutes played.  A great guy to have on the team, and making just a little over $1million/year, he's one of the best bargains in the league.

Asik:  If you're a fan of great defense, do yourself a favor and focus on Asik's work on that end of the floor the next time you watch a Bulls' game.  The guy's a beast.  He has exceptional quickness, instincts and quick feet for a 7-footer.  On offense, watch someone else unless you're a solid screen aficionado (he really does set nice screens).


So how are the Bulls going to do this season?  I expect them to be neck and neck with the Heat winning 50-52 of their 66 regular season games.  Look for a rematch with the Heat in the Eastern Conference finals...this time with a different result.

As I said earlier, this team just loves a good surprise.

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