J.R. Smith

This summer, I expect to hear J.R. Smith's name brought up repeatedly in connection with the Bulls.  I don't really feel like dealing with Smith piecemeal so I might as well get my feelings out on the table.

For those unfamiliar with Smith, he's a 25 year-old 6-6 shooting guard who has played the last 4 seasons for the Denver Nuggets.  In 2004, the New Orleans Hornets signed him out of high school as the 18th overall pick in the NBA draft.  After two years with New Orleans, he was traded as "filler" in the trade that brought P.J. Brown to the Bulls and sent Tyson Chandler to New Orleans.  The Bulls kept Smith for 6 days...as long as it took to get a couple 2nd round picks from the Nuggets...the Bulls had absolutely no interest in Smith.

Smith is an extremely talented scorer, averaging 18.8 points per 36 minutes over his 7-year NBA career.  He's also adequately efficient with a career true shooting percentage of 54.7%.  I haven't watched many of his games since neither New Orleans nor Denver tend to get a lot of national TV run.  From what I've seen, he's got a huge "Wow Factor."  Unfortunately, he's also got a huge "WTF Factor."  He's an indiscriminate shooter.

He's a career 37% 3-point shooter, which is OK, but that doesn't really tell the story.  When Smith is on, he doesn't just make 3-pointers, he makes 3-pointers from what ought to be 4-point range....with a hand in his face...and off balance.  Seriously, he can be amazing.

Cutting to the chase, I have no interest in Smith...zero.  He's a bit of a whack job and a coach's nightmare.  While I haven't seen many of his games, I can recognize a million dollar player with a 10 cent head when I see him.

This is what Smith is.  Someday someone might rehabilitate him and he could become an absolute jewel.  The Bulls need to make some incremental improvement, but they don't need to take this kind of risk.

As a 19 year-old rookie, New Orleans head coach Byron Scott started Smith in 56 of the 76 games Smith played, but only played him 24 minutes per game.  After that rookie season, the uber-talented Smith has been a bench player.  It's the kind of thing that makes you go "hmm."  And it's not as if he's been coached by clueless novices...Scott and Denver head coach George Karl know the game.  Even when the Nuggets lost their top scorer Carmelo Anthony, Karl didn't start Smith or see fit to play him big minutes.  In their 2011 playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Karl played Smith a paltry 15 minutes per game.

It's been said that it got to the point that Karl refused to talk to Smith.  He'd send him in the game from time to time, but didn't want to deal with him.  For those keeping track, this is not a good thing.

Oh yeah, part of the reason many Bulls fans are all gaga about Smith is that Smith is a free agent.  Smith supporters believe that he'll be available for the mid-level exception (aka the MLE...about $5million year 1 salary and, since the Bulls are over the salary cap. the only way that they can sign a free agent outright).  If the Bulls could sign Smith with the MLE, they wouldn't need to trade any of their current players.

Pure and simple, Smith's a headcase.  While he undeniably has loads of talent, he's never quite taken the game or his career seriously.  After 7 seasons, I happen to believe that those who believe that this might change with the Bulls are simply foolish optimists.  These fans will counter with something like, "Yeah, but the Bulls have to do something!"

I hear ya, but the Bulls won 62 games and don't need to employ a roulette wheel strategy to the team's improvement.  They don't need to "take a flyer" on a proven loser...and that's what J.R. Smith is...a proven loser.

Bulls-Heat: Sudden Death

I knew the song was coming to an end, but I thought there was at least one more verse.

To state the obvious, the ending to Thursday night’s Game 5 was an awful way to end a truly wonderful season.  The Bulls who kept surprising us all season, surprised us one more time.  The last 3 minutes were like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  TNT should have posted some sort of warning.

Forget the uneven officiating and Lebron’s theatrics, in those last 3 minutes, the Heat proved to be unquestionably better than the Bulls.  Their defense was stifling, allowing the Bulls only 4 shots (made only 1).  Their offense was a crushing combination of James and Wade hitting well-defended shot after well-defended shot, three of them from beyond the arc.  Their superstars shined.  Meanwhile, Rose lived out a 3-minute nightmare committing 2 turnovers, the cardinal sin of fouling Wade on a 3-pointer and a critical missed free throw.

It’s no wonder that most Bulls’ fans went to bed feeling more than a little traumatized by the whole thing.

What next?

This is the topic du jour and will continue to be for the next several months.  The Bulls won 62 games during the regular season.  They’re a very good team, but Miami is better.  Conventional wisdom says that the Heat will be THE destination for quality role players, eliminating their current “Achilles heel” of quality depth.  The job of Gar Forman and John Paxson will be to somehow leapfrog the Heat.  This won’t be easy.

Ideally, the Bulls like every other team, would like to have big-minute players at each position who are effective at both ends of the court.  Of course, few teams do, but currently they only have two players who match this job description…Rose and Deng.  Adding one more of these is priority #1.  All of the Bulls’ significant players are signed for next season with the exception of veteran big man Kurt Thomas who will be 39 next season.  They may need to replace him, but otherwise their dealings should be related to upgrades.

As most know, leaving coaching aside, there are basically 4 ways to improve an NBA team – the draft, trades, free agency and the development of existing players.  The Bulls have 2 first-round picks in the upcoming draft, but they’re #28 and #30 (last) so you’d need to be a big time optimist to believe that any real help will be found through the draft.  It’s more likely that one or both of these picks will be traded, and if they’re used, it may be for a Euro-type player who would not join the team for a year or two (similar to what they did with rookie center Omer Asik who was a 2^nd-round pick in 2008).

Rose, Noah, Deng, Gibson, Brewer and Asik are young players with great work ethics.  Rose and Deng both added three-point range to their games this season and figure to become more consistent.  Noah, Gibson and Asik need to work on their strength and offensive games, but Brewer is the player to keep an eye on. 

Brewer is already an elite defender at the shooting guard position with great size (6-7), quickness and instincts.  His glaring weakness is outside shooting.  His form is ugly due to a broken arm he suffered when he was a kid that doesn’t allow him to keep his elbow and hand in a straight line to the rim.  I don’t know how much he has worked on his shot, but as Jim Furyk has proven in golf, even if your stroke is a bit funky, if you work on it long enough, you might just be able to make chicken salad from chicken bleep.  If somehow Brewer could shoot as well for a season as he did in these playoffs (43% on 3s), the Bulls would find their 3^rd two-way player in their own backyard.  Well, a guy can dream, can’t he?

Free Agency and Trades

Because the NBA’s labor contract expires after this season, the salary cap and trade rules are up in the air, and as a result, so are free agency and trades.  Assuming the new contract is shaped in a similar fashion to the current one, the Bulls will be over the salary cap so their free agent dealings will be limited to the “Mid-level Exception (MLE)” and minimum-salary players.  The MLE allows a team that’s over the cap to sign one or more free agents up to a combined maximum first-year salary equal to the average salary in the league (currently about $5million).

In terms of the MLE, most of the talk has centered around shooting guards Jason Richardson of the Orlando Magic, Aaron Afflalo of the Denver Nuggets and J.R. Smith, also of the Nuggets.  There’s a problem with each of these players. 

Richardson is an unrestricted free agent who was paid $14.4million this season.  Coming off a season where he averaged about 16 points per game on 45% shooting (40% on 3s), it’s unlikely he’ll be able to match his 2010-11 salary, but since he’s still in his prime (age 30) expecting him to settle for the MLE salary is a iffy at best. 

Afflalo is an uber-efficient scorer (2^nd among all shooting guards with a positively stellar 62.0% true shooting %) with adequate size (6-5) and is a known as a good defender.  While he’s not really a guard who’s particularly good at creating his own shot, he’s far better at this than Bogans.  The problem with Afflalo is that he’s a restricted free agent, so Denver can keep Afflalo by simply matching any offer Afflalo receives.  Particularly with Denver’s former franchise player Carmelo Anthony gone, most believe that the Nuggets will not let Afflalo get away.

Smith has mad skills.  When he’s on, he’s unstoppable…inside, outside, doesn’t matter.  He has good size at 6-6 and is capable of playing sound defense.  He’s an unrestricted free agent, and while he made $6.8million last season, most observers believe that he’ll be available for the MLE…maybe even less.  In his 7-year NBA career, Smith has averaged 19 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists per 36 minutes.  Right about now you’re probably asking, “OK, what’s the catch?”  Just one...Smith is both a certifiable head case and a basketball idiot.  Despite his obvious talent, other than his rookie season, none of his head coaches have ever seen fit to start Smith more than 25 games or play him for more than 28 minutes per game.  He was actually a Bull for 6 days in 2006 as part of the sign-and-trade deal for power forward P.J. Brown.  Paxson kept Brown and got rid of Smith just as quickly as he could.  There are many who believe that the Bulls should take the risk on Smith.  Personally, I don’t see it.

As always, the trade possibilities are limited only by the imagination and fans tend to have very vivid imaginations.  You’ll hear titillating names like Dwight Howard and Ray Allen.  My advice is to ignore this talk.  Howard is next season’s Carmelo, but the Bulls are poorly positioned for either an offseason of in-season trade since Joakim Noah’s on something called “base year compensation” which will make him hard to trade during next season.  Allen is a modern athletic marvel, who at 35 remains the prototypical shooting guard.  The thing is, he has a $10million player option for next season that includes a 15% “trade kicker” (so he’d get 11.5% if traded).  The Bulls don’t have any cap space to sign him as a free agent and don’t figure to have the assets the Celtics would want to trade for him.

One name you’ll hear a lot is Memphis Grizzlies’ shooting guard O.J. Mayo.  Mayo was the 3^rd overall pick of the 2008 draft so he’s got some talent.  At 6-4 he lacks the size of an ideal shooting guard, but he does provide the “secondary creator” ability that many feel the Bulls need…he can score by putting the ball on the floor.   He’s an adequate, but by no means great 3-point shooter (36% this season).  Defensively, he’s not as good as either Bogans or Brewer, but worlds better than Korver.  Rumor had it that the Bulls tried to trade for Mayo during the season, but were unwilling to part with either Gibson or Asik.

The other shooting guard who seems to be on the Bulls’ radar is the Houston Rockets’ Courtney Lee.  Like Mayo, the Bulls were rumored to have interest in acquiring Lee at the trade deadline, but the Bulls weren’t willing to part with one of their young bigs.  Like Afflalo, Lee is not really a “create his own shot” guy, but is a good all-around player who has adequate (6-5) size and can hit the 3-point shot (41% this season).

While I don’t think Richardson’s will settle for MLE money, if he does, there’s a good chance he’ll be a Bull.  It remains to be seen whether the unsuccessful end to the season has changed the Bulls’ front office’s mind on trading Gibson or Asik and whether those other teams are still interested.

Boozer

It seems that everyone wants to trade Boozer.  Although I totally get why you might want to trade him, it’s pretty crazy to believe that there’s any sort of market for him.  The plain fact is that Boozer at age 29 is coming off one of his worst statistical seasons, easily had his worst postseason performance and is going on the 2^nd year of a very lucrative 5-year contract.  Seriously, you couldn’t possibly be in more of a buy high-sell low situation.  Boozer performed like a MLE player but is priced at 3 times that amount.  What exactly do you figure you’ll get?

As for me, I believe we’re stuck with him.  As an unabashed aficionado of defensive excellence, Boozer unquestionably offends my sensibilities.  Still, unlike the last Bulls’ albatross contract (Ben Wallace), at least Boozer seems to be a good teammate.  My guess is that Boozer is here to stay, at least for next season.  This said, if Boozer can be used in any ort of upgrade trade, count me in.

Noah

I have to admit that I’m surprised that many fans are turning on Noah.  I also should say that Noah’s my favorite Bulls’ player.  For those who want to see him traded, I’d be shocked if it happened in the next 12 months.  In fact, I’ll be shocked if it happens at all for someone other than Howard.  Like him or don’t, he’s a defensive genius (no other big I’ve seen is as versatile a defender) and an important electrical power source for the team.  Above all, Noah’s a gamer.  Do I second-guess Thibodeau sitting him in the 4^th quarter of game 5?  No, I first-guessed him.  Whenever the game is on the line, I want Noah in there.  As I see it, Thibodeau made a bad decision by keeping Kurt Thomas in the game.

Noah is an extraordinary defender who can score 10+ points per game without taking any shots from your true scorers.  How many players can you say that about?

Korver-Brewer

If the Bulls can find a shooting guard that can both start and finish games, they’re going to need to unload either Korver or Brewer.  Ideally, which one exits depends on whether the newly-acquired player is stronger at offense or defense.  In any case, if the Bulls are fortunate enough to acquire a 30+ minute shooting guard, one of Korver or Brewer is gone.

In retrospect

The Bulls had one helluva season…way better than any of us had any right to expect.  Personally, they provided me with more entertainment than I could ever have imagined back in October.  For this I sincerely thank them…it was a great gift.

They’ve now raised the bar.  Next season we will reasonably expect the Eastern Conference Finals.  The best guess is that the Heat will be waiting.  Will we be good enough this time?

I want the answer to be yes.  Get to work, GarPax.

Note to Bulls Fans: We're OK

I usually throw some stats and stuff into what I write, but today this is pretty much just going to be limited to observations and opinions.

A lot of Bulls' fans seemed to be on the brink of euphoria after the Bulls easily handled the Heat in game 1.  After the Heat just about completely shut down the Bulls in game 2, many of those same fans can now be seen shivering in the corner with their heads between their knees, muttering incoherently and just trying to catch their breath.

Seriously folks, you need to get a grip.

My guess is that the problem most Bulls' fans are experiencing is that they can't get past their expectations, most of which were set before this season began.  Just about every expert saw the Heat as an instant juggernaut...an irresistible force that would simply cut through the NBA like a hot knife through butter.  Never in the history of the league have 3 players of the caliber of James, Wade and Bosh, in the prime years of their careers, joined forces.  Despite the fact that the Heat had some problems over the course of the season, many fans have continued to live in a state of dread for that day when the stars would come out and exert their inexorable will, blowing past any unfortunate team in their path.

On the other side, not much was expected of the Bulls.  In September, most fans felt that a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals would be an absolute wet dream.  As the team continued to achieve, we began to believe, but always lagged behind the reality.

So here we are, facing the superstar-laden Miami Heat and a lot of fans are flat-out intimidated.  We just can't get over those expectations of what the season would be for the Heat and for the Bulls.  When the Bulls easily won game 1 people got giddy 'cause, despite what the Bulls did in the regular season, their inferiority complex about the Bulls and the programmed concept of the Heat's invincibility led them to that state and gave them hope they didn't expect to have.

Game 2 crashed fans back to earth and back into their pre-programmed inferiority complex.

Relax folks, while it certainly would've been better to go to Miami up 2-0, this series is far from over.

In game 1, the Heat learned that they can't simply rule the day on reputation.  In fact, when they gave only ordinary effort, they got their doors blown off by the Bulls. In game 2, the Heat came out with as much energy as they could muster and even played some nice team basketball. They also dusted off Udonis Haslem who has been on the shelf with a foot injury since November.  When healthy, Haslem's legit...kind of a veteran version of Taj Gibson. 

It was a potent combination for the Heat, but it only resulted in a victory because the Bulls scoring trio of Rose, Boozer and Korver shot under 30%.  Some credit should be given to the Heat's defense, but the truth is that the Bulls missed a lot of very makeable shots and were awful at the free throw line.  If this continues to happen, then yes, the series is over.  The thing is, it's in the Bulls hands to win or lose this series, not the all-powerful Heat's.

The Bulls remain the better defensive team and the better rebounding team.  This won't change.  The Heat have scored 82 and 85 points in the first 2 games of the series.  They averaged 102 per game in the regular season.  Although the mighty Heat pulled away from the Bulls in the 4th quarter of game 2, they did it while scoring only 14 points in the that quarter...14!  In the second halves of the first two games, the Heat have only been able to muster 71 points.  Clearly, the Bulls know how to D-up Miami when it matters.

This series is going to be tough and is by no means a sure thing.  The Heat are a favorite for a reason and they've wrestled away home court advantage...for the moment. However, my advice is that you forget your pre-conceived notions about these teams.  There is no "super team" in this fight.  Both teams are very good, but both are also somewhat flawed.  It's going to be a helluva series and I still feel very good about the Bulls in 7.

They can do this.

The One We’ve Been Waiting For

Generally, I write to an audience that doesn’t closely follow the NBA.  They’re Bulls’ fans mind you, it’s just that most wouldn’t dream of spending a couple precious weekend hours during the regular season watching a Raptors-Twolves game (come to think of it, neither would I).  With them in mind, I did playoff write-ups on the Pacers and Hawks to explain things like the late-season emergence of the Pacers’ Tyler Hansbrough and to sing the praises of the wondrously-erratic Hawk Josh Smith.

The Bulls now face the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.  You don’t need to be an NBA fan to know about the Heat.  In fact, you don’t even need to be a sports fan.  Ask some little old lady on the street who plays on the Heat and she’ll get at least 2 correct answers.

The Heat Dynasty – Year 1

When Lebron James announced that he was “taking his talents to South Beach” to join forces with superstar guard Dwayne Wade and brought All Star power forward Chris Bosh along for the ride, the national media quickly declared a dynasty.  Never in the history of the league had 3 in-their-prime players of this magnitude played on the same team.  Many predicted that the Heat would shatter the ’95-’96 Bulls regular season record of 72 wins.

When the Heat got off to a disappointing 9-8 start to the season (making the record-breaking 73-9 somewhat unlikely), the national media wrote it off as a normal adjustment phase.  This looked like a good call as the Heat promptly ran off a 12-game winning streak and won 21 of their next 22 to tie them with the Boston Celtics atop the NBA’s Eastern Conference standings at 30-9.  It took a little time, but the Heat were where they were supposed to be and the rest of the league would soon be mere specks in their rearview mirror.

Didn’t happen.  The Heat played well, going 58-24, but struggled against the top teams (2-9 vs the Celtics, Bulls, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks). 

The national story line

Despite the fact that the Bulls won more games than any other team this season, beat the Heat all three times they played them and have home court advantage, the Heat are the betting favorites in this game.  Why?  A couple reasons.

First, it’s generally believed that the Heat have looked like the better team through the first 2 rounds of these playoffs.  Both the Bulls and the Heat dispatched their first-round opponent in 5 games, but the Heat beat the Philadelphia 76ers who were considered a significantly better team than the Pacers.  In the second-round, the Bulls often struggled to get past the lightly-regarded Hawks, while it only took the Heat 5 games to take out the Celtics, considered by some to be a legitimate championship contender.  James and Wade have been brilliant in these playoffs, each averaging 26 points and 5 assists per game.  Lebron has stepped up his rebounding, grabbing 9.4 per game and Wade pulled down nearly 8 boards per game...eye-popping for a guard.  Bosh has provided solid support, averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds.

The second reason the Heat are favored is that many believe that the regular season was nothing more than a long and tedious pre-requisite to what this team was built for…winning championships.  This is why James left Cleveland and Bosh left Toronto.  It’s why all 3 of the Heat’s stars took less than the max money each would have received if financial considerations were put at the forefront.  The Heat trio is superbly-talented and highly-motivated.  The playoffs are where the stars truly shine and it remains unarguable that the Heat lead the NBA in star power.  They simply will not be denied…it’s their destiny.

So who else plays for the Heat?

It’s a fair question, and since Heat Head Coach Eric Spoelstra is allowed to put 5 players out on the floor, he probably will.  The Heat’s supporting cast is pretty much made up of two types of players – big guys who try to set screens, rebound, block shots and not shoot and little guys who hang out at the 3-point line waiting for a wide open shot.

Leading the big guys is 6-9 center Joel Anthony, an undrafted free agent who has been with the Heat since the ’07-’08 season.  He’ll pull down some rebounds for them (5.7 per game in the playoffs), but his thing is blocking shots…he leads the Heat with 16 in the 10 Heat playoff games.  Zydrunas Ilgauskas is 7-3 and was once a heckuva player, making 2 All Star game appearances back in the day.  After 12 years in Cleveland, 7 of them playing alongside James, he signed with the Heat on a minimum salary contract (over a $10million pay cut…yes, he’s the prototypical “ring-chaser).  He was never fast, but he’s stunningly slow at age 35, but he can still hit the occasional open jumper if you leave him open.  At age 38, 6-9 forward/center Juwan Howard certainly has experience on his side.  The Heat are Howard’s 8^th NBA team, though in truth he’s played for several of those 8 more than once.  Look for him to play about 7 minutes/game and set a couple screens…sad, but that’s what it’s come down to for Howard.  Lastly, there’s Udonis Haslem.  Haslem may be the Heat’s 4^th-best player, but has been sidelined with a foot injury since November.  He made his return in the Heat’s game 4 win in Boston and played 3 minutes of hideous basketball earning him a DNP-CD (did not play-coach’s decision) in the deciding game 5.  Haslem could be a “wild card” in the series with the Bulls.

Of the little guys, Mario Chalmers and recently-acquired veteran Mike Bibby will get most of the point guard minutes, but don’t expect much in the way of playmaking from them…they’re in the lineup to occasionally bring the ball up the court and then wait at the perimeter if needed.  Chalmers can defend some.  Bibby hardly even tries anymore.  If neither Chalmers nor Bibby are hitting their 3s, Spoelstra may send journeyman chucker Eddie House into the game for a heat-check.

One Heat bench player who doesn’t fit either of the 2 categories is 6-8 forward James Jones.  Jones is a good 3-point shooter who has been very good in these playoffs.  He was on fire in game 1 of the Celtics series, knocking down 5 of 7 treys and scoring 25 points…he actually outscored James by 3.  Rounding out the Heat bench is veteran 6-8 small forward Mike Miller.  By design, Miller should be the Heat’s #4 player (he’s the 4^th-highest paid) and resident 3-point marksman (40% for his career), but has had an injury-plagued season.  Jones has pretty much taken over Miller’s role on the team.

Matchups

This figures to be a very non-traditional series matchup-wise.  For the Bulls, Luol Deng figures to be on James nearly all the time and Carlos Boozer will likely be assigned to defend the Heat’s non-shooting big man (mostly Anthony and Ilgauskas).  Beyond that it’ll probably be a mix and match situation.  Wade figures to see mostly Bogans and Brewer, but Derrick Rose may guard him as well, particularly when Kyle Korver is in the game with Rose.  Noah figures to have Bosh.  This figures to be a much better defensive series for Korver since, as has been mentioned, the Heat almost always have someone in their lineup whose job it is to hang out at the 3-point line…that’s your guy, Kyle.

For the Heat, the obvious key is to stop Rose.  Rose will probably start out being defended by Chalmers, with Wade on Bogans.  This leaves Wade will be free to provide aggressive weakside help, one of many things at which he excels.  Wade will also defend Rose and particularly late in games, James will take his turn in an effort to get Derrick to give up the ball.  Boozer could be defended by either Anthony or Bosh, but if Boozer gets hot, it’ll be Anthony (the better defender).

In the interest of full disclosure

I don’t like the Heat, but most of all I don’t like Lebron James.  He’s a magnificent basketball player, the most talented on the planet, but first and foremost he’s an actor playing the Lebron role in an effort to increase the market share of the “Lebron brand.”  I should point out here that, unlike most James-haters, I didn’t like him in his last few years with the Cavaliers.

Watching him on and off the court, I often wonder how long James rehearses his myriad facial expressions.  I particularly enjoy his “determination” and “astonishment” looks…the latter can be seen every time he either misses an inside shot (I was fouled) or is called for a foul (Are U Serious?).  I honestly believe that James brushes his teeth as if he’s on camera.  Great player and totally self-absorbed, narcissistic douchebag.

I also don’t like Chris Bosh, but again it’s for reasons that are different from many.  I really liked his game in Toronto and believed that in his last season there he was on the brink of superstardom (24 points, 11 rebounds and a superstar-level 25.0 Player Efficiency Rating…Wade posted a 25.6 PER this season).  Why oh why would a 25-year old kid with that kind of talent turn himself into a “ring-chaser?”  What a freakin’ waste.

I actually like Dwayne Wade and believe Chicago fans have treated him harshly.  Did he use the Bulls for leverage last summer?  Almost certainly.  I might have done the same thing in his shoes.  I like him because he’s a tough-minded competitor who is a basketball player first and a pitchman only in his spare time.

Oh yeah, I’ve always hated Pat Reilly.

Conclusion

Buckle up, kids…this series is going to be an “E” ticket ride, or as the kids say, “Epic.”  I’ve heard many opine that this series will determine the future 5 years of the NBA Eastern Conference, but I wouldn’t go that far.  However, the Heat and the Bulls figure to be elite teams for the foreseeable future and one of them is going to walk away from this one with a mental edge.

For each team, the last time they took the court, they were had what could be viewed as “statement victories,” yet some belittled their achievements.  The Heat had their emotional home win over the Celtics, but some pointed out that the Celts were handicapped by their one-armed point guard, Rajon Rondo.  The Bulls totally dominated the Hawks in Atlanta, but some said that the Hawks lackluster effort in front of their home fans just proved that they remain nothing more but pretenders.  As for me, they looked like two elite teams doing what they needed to do when they needed to do it.

I find myself compelled to pick the Bulls in 7.  The fact that I’m a Bulls’ fan and also having a genuine dislike for the Heat undoubtedly have entered into my thinking.  Also, my coaching bias tells me that a well-coached team can overcome superior talent (y’all saw Hoosiers, didn’t ya?).  I’m convinced that Thibodeau is the better coach, or at least the coach who is allowed by his players to do the better coaching job.

I can’t wait for this one to start.

Boozer by the Numbers

As the playoffs began, I wrote that it looked like Bulls forward Carlos Boozer might be knocking on the (fans') "doghouse" door.  After 7 playoff games, it's clear that he's firmly established his residence there, though we hope not permanently.  During last night's game 2 win over Hawks, Boozer was booed repeatedly by the fans, causing teammate Joakim Noah and head coach Tom Thibodeau to plead for fans to give Carlos a break...yeah, that'll work.

Hurt, Bad or Both?

Boozer suffered a "turf toe" injury during the second quarter of the Bulls' closeout victory of the Indiana Pacers 9 days ago.  No doubt, this can be a very painful and limiting injury, particularly for an athlete the size (6-9, 258lbs) of Boozer.  However, Boozer's detractors are quick to point out that he didn't exactly shine against the Pacers before the injury (10 points, 10 rebounds and 3 turnovers per game for the series).

Last summer, Boozer signed a 5-year contract estimated at $75million, the richest in team history.  He came with some baggage, chiefly a reputation for being injury-prone and a less-than-willing defender...he's lived up to his rep on these counts.  However, he also had a solid track record for being a near-elite low-post scorer and a beast on the glass.  While his 17.5 points/game average this season was right around his career number (17.3ppg), he was down in nearly every other category and his 54.2% "True Shooting Percentage (TS%)" was the second-lowest in his 9-year NBA career.

Stats Though 7 Playoff Games

Still, one of the main reasons the Bulls paid what they did for Boozer was the playoffs, where the game becomes much more of a half-court affair and the value of reliable inside scoring is at a premium.  Despite the fact that scoring is generally down during the playoffs, Boozer came into this postseason with an impressive playoff resume, averaging nearly 20 points and 13 rebounds per game and putting up an impressive "Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of just under 20 in his previous 4 playoff appearances.

So far has very definitely not been so good for Boozer in these 2011 playoffs.  Stunningly bad is a term that comes to mind.  In 7 games, Boozer has averaged just over 31 minutes per game (close to his season average of 31.9) with points and rebounding numbers holding steady at the 10-10 he posted against the Pacers.  Since he figured to be the clear-cut #2 scoring option (behind Derrick Rose) in these playoffs, the fact that he is currently 4th on the team in playoff points (behind Rose, Luol Deng and Noah and just ahead of Kyle Korver's 9.4 who plays less than 2/3 of Boozer's minutes) has to be a concern for Thibodeau. 

The truth is that Boozer's 10-10 is misleading...he's played much worse than this.  His TS% so far in these playoffs is a downright embarrassing 42.7%, ranking him 10th of the 12 players on the Bulls' roster, ahead of only C.J. Watson (under 10 minutes per game) and Omer Asik (only 5 minutes per game).    He's second on the team (behind Rose) with 16 turnovers, but his turnover percentage of 15.9% is higher than Rose's 13.8% and is the worst among the team's starters.

Assists?  Steals?  Blocks?  No matter where you look, it's bad.  When you roll all the stats up John Hollinger-Style, you come out with a 9.6 playoff PER...4th worst on the Bulls playoff squad and dead last among players averaging 10+ minutes per game.

Go Carlos!

My purpose here isn't to trash Boozer, but rather to make the point that Boozer's performance so far in these playoffs isn't simply a matter of an 18 point scorer dropping to 10 points.  It's more serious than that.  If the total quality of Boozer's playoff game doesn't begin to at least vaguely resemble the postseason Boozer of old, I believe that the Bulls chances for a title very nearly become slim and none.

Those of you who attend the games have a right to boo whoever you want.  Personally, I wish you wouldn't boo Carlos.  We need this guy to come around...badly.  Besides, anyone who thought that the booing would somehow motivate Boozer to return to form pretty much saw that plan crash and burn last night.

This shouldn't be a problem for the next 2 games in Atlanta, but I encourage all true Bulls' fans to begin practicing their game 5 Boozer cheers.  C'mon, make that "Z" harder...harder, so Carlos can hear it!

Well, it couldn't hurt.

Bears' Draft Analysis

With the uncertainty of free agency in this tumultuous NFL offseason, the recently completed draft took on added significance.  The Bears had needs to fill and we all knew what they were.  Bears’ GM Jerry Angelo and the rest of the front office are pleased with the 5 players they selected.  In my opinion, they have a right to be.  While you can’t really judge the success of a draft for 2 or 3 years, the Bears selected players who fit key areas of need, and in most cases, are higher quality prospects than the Bears’ had a right to expect given their late draft position.

Gabe Carimi – 6-7, 315lb Offensive Tackle – Round 1 (29^th overall selection)

It’s an NFL draft cliché to say, “We’re thrilled to get so-and-so.  We never dreamed that he’d still be there when it was our turn to pick.”  In this case, it’s an entirely accurate statement.  Carimi, the 2010 Outland Trophy winner as the most outstanding interior lineman in college football, was projected by experts to go as high as #17 and no one I read thought he’d get past the Philadelphia Eagles at #23.  When he was still on the board after the 25^th overall pick, the Bears were convinced that the KC Chiefs would take him at #27.  This led to the botched trade with the Baltimore Ravens who held #26.  Fortunately, the Chiefs went with wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin and Carimi fell to the Bears.

Carimi has just about everything you want in a tackle…size, strength, quickness and a bit of a nasty streak.  Some say that since he’s such a punishing run blocker, he’ll be moved to right tackle, but I wouldn’t count on it.  In any case, the Bears hit a home run with this pick.

Stephen Paea – 6-1, 303lb Defensive Tackle – Round 2 (53^rd overall selection)

Several experts, including the highly-respected Pro Football Weekly publication, thought the Bears would select Paea with their first round pick, citing that he’d be a perfect fit to replace Tommie Harris at the all important “3 Technique” tackle in the Lovie Smith’s “Tampa 2” defense.  Others felt that the Bears would get him if they traded out of the first round and into an early 2^nd round selection.  However, when they landed Carimi in the first, Paea figured to be the “fish that got away.”  

When Paea remained on the board midway through round 2, the Angelo didn’t want to press his luck and started making calls in an effort to move up from their 62^nd overall position.  It cost the Bears their 4^th round pick, but they found a taker in the Washington Redskins and got their man with the 53^rd overall selection.

Paea is very quick, has a very high motor and is freakishly strong.  At the NFL combine in Indianapolis, he blew past the all-time record for the 225lb bench press with 49 reps (previous best was 45).  Paea grew up in Tonga where he was a rugby player.  His family moved to the US when he was 16 and he began playing football.  He drew little interest from major colleges so he attended junior college to learn the game.  He eventually received a scholarship from Oregon State where he earned All-Pac10 honors and the Morris Trophy as the best defensive lineman in the conference.  The kid’s a quick study.

Paea figures to start for the Bears right away.  He also figures to push a few of his new teammates in the weight room. 

Chris Conte – 6-2, 197lb Free Safety – Round 3 (93^rd overall selection)

Conte played at cornerback his first 3 seasons at Cal before switching to safety as a senior.  He’s a strong and willing tackler, but moved up on many draft boards based on a strong showing at the combine.  His 4.53 40-yard dash time surprised many, as did the fact that his 10’7” broad jump placed 4^th among all defensive backs.

The Bears, knowing that they didn’t have a 4^th round pick, may have reached a bit in selecting Conte, but he figures to contribute immediately on special teams and may even compete for the starting job.

Nathan Enderle – 6-4, 240lb Quarterback – Round 5 (160^th overall selection)

By all accounts, this was a Mike Martz (Bears’ Offensive Coordinator) pick.  Martz attended Idaho’s “Pro Day” to take a look at Enderle and the two apparently hit it off.  Afterwards, Enderle positively gushed at Martz’s understanding of the position and how he was able to immediately give the QB several useful tips on his mechanics. 

Enderle clearly has pro size and has a quick release, but isn’t particularly athletic (5.15 in the 40).  By pro standards his arm strength and accuracy are rated as no better than average.  He figures to make the team as a 3^rd-string QB and may be placed on the developmental squad (if one still exists in the new labor agreement).  By many accounts, the Bears reached to get Enderle.

J.T. Thomas – 6-1, 241lb Linebacker – Round 6 (195^th overall selection)

No reach here.  Thomas was expected to be selected late in the draft and was.  Main knock on him is his height, but he’s faster than most of the linebackers selected ahead of him (his 4.68 in the 40 was 7^th best among linebackers).  Scouts say that he loves to deliver the big hit, but sometimes gets himself out of position in anticipation of delivering the blow.  Sounds like a special teamer to me.

Conclusion

Since I’m a firm believer in the adage that success in pro football is all about “your big uglies beating their big uglies,” Angelo and the Bears front office had me at round 2 in this draft.  Nearly every scout had Carimi among the elite offensive tackle prospects in this draft class and Paea was probably the top 3-technique tackle prospect in the draft.  If someone had offered to give the Bears these two players in return for all of their draft picks, they might have been tempted.

Conte figures to be a lock to make the team on special teams and may do even better than that.  Besides, it wouldn’t be a Bears draft if they didn’t take a safety somewhere.  I’m not wowed by what I’ve read about Enderle and it’s up to Martz to show that the big QB was worth taking a couple rounds ahead of his time.  In the meantime, he’ll look good holding a clipboard.  Lastly, I like J.T. Thomas.  Like Paea, he’s a player who figures to be more valuable in Lovie Smith’s defense than he would be elsewhere.  First and foremost, the Tampa-2 demands speed from its linebackers and Thomas has 3^rd-round linebacker speed.

There’s a very good chance that the Bears picked up 2 immediate starters and that all 5 of their picks will make the team.  I don’t believe in giving grades for drafts, so I’ll simply say Angelo and his staff done good…damn good.