Although some teams are still jockeying for playoff seed positions, the #1 vs #8 first-round series in the Eastern Conference is set. It’s a Central Division matchup with the Chicago Bulls (59-20) taking on the Indiana Pacers (37-43).
Clearly, the Bulls are heavy favorites to advance to the conference semi-final round, but the Pacers have been on a bit of a run in the last month of this season, winning 10 their last 15 games, including a 115-108 overtime victory against the Bulls on March 18. During this stretch, the Pacers have also defeated the New York Knicks (twice), the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks…all playoff-bound teams. You could make a case that the Pacers are currently playing better basketball than the Philadelphia 76ers (currently the 7th seed), the Knicks (#6) and the Hawks (#5).
Net, the Pacers may not be quite the “cupcake” Bulls’ fans would like them to be.
The Pacers are led by 6-8 forward Danny Granger. The 27 year old Granger is in this 6th NBA season and has been selected to one Eastern Conference All Star squad (‘08-‘09). Granger’s natural position is small forward, though like his Bulls’ small forward counterpart Luol Deng, he can play the power forward position when Pacers’ Head Coach Frank Vogel decides to go small. While he has excellent size, Granger who’s averaging 20.5 points per game this season, does most of his damage from the outside and boasts a more than respectable 38.3% conversion rate on his 3-point attempts. During crunch time, Granger is the Pacers “go-to guy.”
The Granger-Deng matchup should be both fun to watch and important to the end results. They’re virtually the same size and both are good two-way players, with Granger having the edge on offense and Deng on defense. Granger is the Pacers best player and Bulls’ Head Coach Tom Thibodeau calls Deng the team’s “glue.” Both will work hard to tire the other, and ideally, get them in foul trouble. It’s the most compelling “battle within the war” in this series.
Big centers have given the Bulls trouble in the past and the Pacers have a good one in 7-2, 278 pound Roy Hibbert. In his 3rd NBA season, Hibbert leads the Pacers in rebounding (7.6/game) and is 3rd in scoring (12.7 per game). He’ll be a tough matchup for Bulls’ center Joakim Noah, who will be giving up 3 inches and nearly 50 pounds to Hibbert. However, as big as he is, Hibbert hasn’t played well against physical defenders, so look for Bulls’ veteran big man Kurt Thomas to get some minutes pounding on Hibbert. Also, this will be Hibbert’s first playoff experience and it may be telling to see how he handles the increased inside contact generally allowed in the postseason.
The Pacers offense is run by 2nd-year point guard Darren Collison. Collison leads the team in assists (5.1/game) and is 2nd in scoring at 13.2 points/game. Although Collison can just about match the Bulls’ all-world point guard Derrick Rose in terms of quickness, at only 6-0 and a wispy 160 pounds, Rose has a serious advantage in both size and strength.
Most Pacers' observers believe that the key to the Pacers’ late season rush has been the play of 2nd-year power forward Tyler Hansbrough. That’s right, the very same “Psycho T” from those great North Carolina NCAA teams. The 6-9, 255 pound Hansbrough still brings a manic energy to the floor every night, but until recently, his uber-activity was more style than substance. However, in his last 23 games, Hansbrough seems to have hit his stride, averaging nearly 16 points and 7 rebounds per game. Hansbrough shapes up to be the Pacers’ “X Factor” in the series.
Rounding out the Pacers’ starters is rookie shooting guard Paul George out of Fresno State who the Pacers selected with the 10th overall pick in last year’s NBA draft. At 6-8, he has freakish size for his position and possesses freakish athleticism to go along with it. However, George is more of a raw talent than a skilled basketball player. An excellent long-range shooter in college, George has yet to adjust to the NBA 3-point distance (just under 30% from the arc). Still, he figures to be a tough matchup for the Bulls’ shooting guards. This could be particularly true of the Bulls’ Kyle Korver, who at 6-7 usually hopes his size advantage at SG will compensate for his lack of athleticism. Defending George, he’ll need to rely on veteran savvy…or prayer.
Like the Bulls, the Pacers roster has quality depth. This depth includes their “Duke Alumni Association” of 6-9 guard Mike Dunleavy, 6-10 forward Josh McRoberts and 6-6 guard Dahntay Jones. Dunleavy’s a heady veteran who only recently lost his starting position to George. McRoberts is a “stretch” big man and a very efficient scorer with a field goal percentage of 54.1% and 38.3% from behind the 3-point line. Jones doesn’t see many minutes, but averages 17.8 points per- 36 minutes played.
The Pacers bench also features Brandon Rush (leads the Pacers with 41.3% 3-point accuracy), 6-11 veteran center Jeff Foster, the prototypical blue-collar journeyman big, and a classic “chucker” in guard A.J. Price, who ranks second on the team (behind only Granger) with 14.6 shot attempts per-36 minutes despite the fact that he has a pretty damn woeful shooting percentage of 35.7% and an equally awful 27.3% from the arc.
In terms of style of play, the Pacers play at a much faster pace (94.6 Pace Factor, 6th in the NBA) than the Bulls (90.4 Pace Factor, 22nd in the league) so controlling the speed of the game will be a priority for both teams. If, as is normally the case in the playoffs, the games become half-court contests, this should favor the Bulls.
Both teams would like to play “inside-out” on offense with the Bulls feeding Carlos Boozer in the post and the Pacers dumping the ball in to Hibbert. Both defenses will work hard to root these players out from the position they want and forcing them to settle for mid-range jump shots. If they’re successful, Boozer can still be somewhat effective. Hibbard can’t.
In the playoffs, barring foul trouble most coaches shorten their rotations, generally going with only 7 or 8 players. Both the Pacers and the Bulls may be exceptions to this rule since each has 11 players who have some game. These battles of the benches should be interesting The Pacers bench is loaded with scorers while the Bulls is loaded with defense…sort of an irresistible force-immovable object matchup.
Comparing their regular season records, this one shouldn’t be close, but I expect good, competitive games. Not surprisingly, the difference will be Rose…he’s been the difference-maker for the Bulls all season. Collison won’t be able to handle him, particularly when the game is on the line. As Bulls’ color analyst Stacey King often reminds us, Rose is simply “too big, too strong, too fast…too good,” and this should be particularly true against the undersized Collison.
Bulls in 5.
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