The Atlanta Hawks surprisingly sent Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic home early, taking their first-round series 4-2. In the end, it was a matter of quantity over quality…an ensemble cast triumphing over the transcendent superstar. Now the Hawks face the Chicago Bulls and soon-to-be-MVP, Derrick Rose in round 2. Can the Hawks manage an encore?
Unlike the Bulls’ first-round opponent, the Indiana Pacers, the Hawks roster includes a lot of familiar names. First, there are former Bulls Kirk Hinrich and Jamal Crawford, two guards whose games couldn’t be more different, though both can be effective. Then there are All Stars, Joe Johnson (5 straight All Star selections) and Al Horford (two straight). Many of us studied up on Johnson’s game this past offseason when rumor had it that the Bulls had pegged him as one of their main free agent targets (the Hawks re-signed him to a 6-year, $124million contract…the largest contract signed last summer) . The Hawks also feature 6-9 forward Josh Smith, a terrific athlete who earned 2nd-team NBA All-Defensive Team honors last season.
Rounding out the Hawks 8-man rotation are centers Zaza Pachulia (6-11, 240) and Jason Collins (7-0, 255) and 6-9 forward Marvin Williams, the second overall pick of the 2006 NBA draft.
Streaky or bi-polar?
The Hawks finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference in the ’09-’10 season with a solid 53-29 record, taking out the Milwaukee Bucks in their first-round matchup 4-3 before being swept in 4 straight by the Magic. With Johnson’s signing, the Hawks basically stood pat this season. However, with the Miami Heat, Bulls and New York Knicks looking much improved due to offseason free agent acquisitions, most experts picked the Hawks anywhere between 4 and 6 in the East this season.
Atlanta got out of the gate quickly, winning their first 6 games this season, including victories over the playoff-bound Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers, leading some to wonder if they had underestimated this season’s edition of the Hawks. Since the Hawks finished the season at 44-38, they were a .500 team after their season-opening streak.
In addition to their 6 wins to start the season, Atlanta also had two 5-game win streaks and a 4-gamer. They finished their regular season in exactly the opposite fashion to how they started with a season-worst 6-game losing streak. In fact, the Hawks lost 14 of their last 22 games, far and away the worst closing record of any playoff team. This is why, despite their 5th seed in the East, many felt that Atlanta was the weakest of the playoff teams. Nearly every expert predicted that they would be quickly dispatched by the Magic.
Which Hawks team will show up?
That’s the $64,000 Question. When they’re good, they can play with just about anyone and they can stay hot for a while. They clearly turned themselves around to defeat the Magic, but I can’t say that I saw them as world-beaters in the first round. The Magic, who led the league in 3-point shots made during the regular season, shot an abysmal 26.2% from the arc in round 1 (the worst 3-point performance of any of the 16 playoff teams). In fairness, the Hawks deserve some credit here, but in the end the Magic pretty much shot their way out of this year’s playoffs.
On paper, Atlanta is similar to the Pacers in that they have several players who can go off on you if you’re not careful. Johnson, Horford, Smith and Crawford each had multiple 30+ point games this season. However, they have an offense that’s primarily perimeter-oriented, something the Bulls defend exceptionally well.
Defensively, the Hawks are good and Johnson, Horford, Smith and Hinrich are all plus defenders. Pachulia at center is a world-class “flopper” and can annoy the heck out of you. Crawford is their glaring defensive weakness. He is truly awful. You’ll see him start out in a first-rate defensive stance, but throughout his career, his heart simply has never been into working hard at the defensive end. Maybe it’s just me, but whenever I see Jamal in that nifty defensive stance of his, I get the distinct feeling that he’s thinking about what he’s going to do the next time he gets the ball.
Key Matchups
Hinrich-Rose. Hinrich came to the Hawks at the trade deadline, being traded for Mike Bibby. Hinrich’s by far a better defender than Bibby, but even if his hamstring is OK (MRI today), he’s no match for Rose. On offense, Hinrich can hit the open 3-pointer, so Rose will need to play him honestly. However, Hinrich has never been much of an off-the-dribble scorer, which should make Rose’s defensive job easier.
Horford-Noah. Although Horford will start the game at power forward with Pachulia at center, look for Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau to give Noah, rather than power forward Carlos Boozer, the defensive assignment on the multi-talented Horford. Down the stretch in games, the Hawks generally “go small” and Horford moves to center. The former college teammates are good friends but fierce competitors. Horford will still “get his,” but Noah will make it very tough work.
Johnson-Bogans/Brewer/Deng. Though Johnson starts games at shooting guard, his offensive game is strikingly similar to the Pacers’ small forward Danny Granger. Both are 6-8, 225. Both have very good ball-handling skills for their size and both are accurate shooters who use their size effectively to get off their shots. Seriously, they’re basically the same player except that Johnson’s a better defender and doesn’t go into delusional whiney rants when his team is eliminated from the playoffs. Bogans will start out on Johnson and it will be a tough cover since Bogans will be giving up 3 inches. Brewer will also guard Johnson, but when the Hawks go small and Johnson moves to small forward, the assignment will go to Deng. My guess is that this “tag team” approach will make it tough on Johnson. On defense, Johnson should have an easy time with Bogans and Brewer (since neither does much offensively). Johnson will have to work hard defending Deng, though.
Smith-Deng/Boozer. Smith will start at small forward, but move to power forward in Atlanta’s small lineup. The Smith-Deng matchup could be a tough one for Deng. Smith is bigger, stronger and a much more explosive athlete. However, Deng is the smarter (Smith has a history of doing things on the court that make you go “Huh?”) and less turnover-prone player. Both are exceptional defensive players. In fact, many are predicting that Deng will take Smith’s small forward place on this season’s 2nd-team NBA All-Defensive team. This will be a great match-up to watch and I expect the two to pretty much cancel each other out. The Smith-Boozer matchup concerns me on both ends. Smith can be effective both inside and out, and if Smith gets going from the 3-point line (33% from the arc), it could hurt. On offense, Boozer will need to take better care of the ball than he did in the Pacers series. If he can do this, he should be able to take advantage of his weight/strength advantage and pound Smith near the basket.
Crawford-Rose and Korver-Crawford. Crawford doesn’t start games, but averages over 30 minutes per game and is almost always on the floor at the end of games. Hawks’ head coach Larry Drew will do everything possible to avoid having Crawford defend Rose for obvious reasons. Hawks’ reserve guard Jeff Teague may get some significant time if Hinrich can’t go. However, Crawford is a very tough cover and when he gets it going can be virtually unstoppable. On defense, Crawford figures to be assigned to Korver, particularly late in games. Look for the Bulls to take advantage of this matchup, running Crawford through the usual gauntlet of screens. Crawford and his slight 6-6, 185-pound frame will absolutely hate this. If Korver’s shot is on, he’s going to have another big series.
As with most of the games against the Pacers, the games in this series will probably come down to which team can impose its will on the other in the closing minutes. The two teams take very different approaches to “crunch time.” For the Bulls, Rose is the undisputed “go-to guy” and one of the best in the NBA. The Hawks take more of a committee approach with Johnson, Smith and Crawford (in that order) taking most of the key shots.
Though this Hawks team is capable of extending the Bulls to more than 5 games, my guess is that they won’t. The Hawks simply have no answer for Rose while the Bulls have reasonable answers for the Hawks’ key players. Also, while the Hawks got by the Magic, they didn’t do it by playing their best basketball. I’m not convinced that they’ve completely gotten over the funk that caused them to close out the regular season so poorly.
Bottom line? While it wouldn’t surprise me if the Hawks win a game at home, I have a feeling that this one’s gonna be a Bulls’ sweep, so that’s my official prediction and I’m stickin’ to it.
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