The Bogans Conundrum

OK Alex, I’ll take “Inexplicable Coaching Decisions” for $500.

And here is your answer: The question on all Chicago Bulls fans lips when they see Keith Bogans in the starting lineup.

Ding.

Well I’ll have to clean it up a bit Alex, but it would be “Why oh why in the name of all that is good and holy?”

We would have accepted a simple “Why?” but you are correct…continue.


It’s been called by some in the media a debate or this season’s controversy, but the truth is that it’s neither of these. While you can get a reasonable number of Bulls’ fans on each side of patently ridiculous arguments about whether Derrick Rose is a true point guard or if Luol Deng is better off dead or alive, there’s simply no one out there willing to take up the sword for Bogans. Heck, even the man responsible for inserting Bogans in the starting lineup every game, Bulls’ Head Coach Tom Thibodeau, seldom says more than “Keith Bogans is not the problem” and immediately tries to change the subject.

Interestingly, fans aren’t so much angry about Bogans being a starter as they are simply perplexed. Most generally like Thibodeau and otherwise think he’s doing a good job. No doubt the angst is limited by the fact that the team is winning games at a pace not seen since the dynasty years.

Yet the question remains, why does Bulls PA announcer Tommy Edwards continue to be told to start one of his introductions with “From Kentucky…”

By way of introduction, I tend to side with team management on most issues. Fact is, they have more and better information than I do as well as far superior relevant experience. Even so, this Bogans thing has had me puzzled for a while now.
But I’m developing a theory.

In breaking this one down, the numbers are absolutely no help. This season, the Bulls’ starting shooting guard (OK, I promise this is the last time I’ll rub this in your face) is averaging a measly 3.5 points and 1.3 assists in 17.8 minutes per game. So maybe he’s efficient. Nope. He’s shooting under 40% overall and under 30% from the arc. Heck, he’s only making 61% of his free throws, not that he shoots many of ‘em. For you more advanced stat geeks, his total shooting is south of .500 and he sports a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 6.8…bad offensive numbers for a sub, much less a starter. In fact, Bogans is almost certainly the least productive offensive starter in the NBA right now and you could make a strong argument that he’s the least productive starter ever for a winning team.

OK, so maybe he’s not much of an offensive player. A great defender, right? Well, this was his reputation coming in, but unfortunately it hasn’t been the case so far this season. The Bulls have often come out flat defensively this season and Bogans has been part of the reason. I’m not much of a fan of the defensive stats that have been developed (e.g., opponent PER, Defensive Rating, etc.), but I checked and they don’t speak highly of Bogans this season either. My eyeball test, still the best measure for defensive play in my book, says he’s mediocre at best.

Another obvious place to look for the solution to this puzzle are the alternatives Thibodeau has to playing Bogans. These include Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and to a lesser extent, C.J. Watson. We’ll work backwards.

Watson’s primary role is to back up Rose at the point and he’s done a pretty creditable job at it, highlighted by an astounding 33 point outburst earlier this season against the Nuggets when Rose was sidelined due to injury. Yeah, he can score some. The problem is that at 6-2, he forces Rose to defend the opposing big guard and this isn’t good for Rose in large doses…and if it ain’t good for Rose, it ain’t good for the Bulls. Net, Thibodeau will continue to use Watson occasionally with Derrick, but it’s unlikely that Watson will help to cut Bogans minutes any further.

When the Bulls signed Brewer this offseason, most expected him, not Bogans, to start at shooting guard. Unfortunately, Brewer had trouble with his hamstring and was limited in the preseason and early going. He was recently declared 100% and is better at everything related to basketball than Bogans, so what gives?

Well, the truth is that Brewer’s return to health has helped limit the Bogans problem…he just hasn’t solved it. Brewers’ minutes have risen steadily while Bogans’ have correspondingly declined. Forget the season averages…Brewer’s playing about twice as many minutes at shooting guard as Bogans (roughly 28 to 14). This is a good thing, but not enough, and while Brewer will probably crack the 30-minute mark with increasing regularity, he can’t absorb enough of Bogans’ minutes to relegate him to the role of “deep bench” that Bogans so richly deserves.

Which brings us to Kyle Korver, and like South Park did to Canada, I firmly point my strongest digit at the Bulls’ master sharpshooter and declare, “Blame Korver!” Or at least this is what I think Thibodeau would say if placed under a healthy dose of sodium pentathol.

We all know Korver can shoot, setting the all-time record for 3-point accuracy last season at 53.6%. He’s averaging 21.6 minutes per game so he certainly should be able to take on . Like Brewer and Bogans, Korver is known as a swingman who can play either shooting guard or small forward.

Except Thibodeau really, really doesn’t like playing Korver at guard. When Brewer and Korver are in together, Korver defends the forward. The same is true on those rare occasions when Korver is paired with Bogans. While Korver is the tallest of the three, Brewer is longer and both Brewer and Bogans are better rebounders. Still, when given the choice, Thibodeau invariably avoids matching Korver up with speed and quickness. And with Thibodeau, the answer to almost every deployment decision starts with defense.

From what I’ve seen of Korver, he’s a willing defender and hustles almost all the time. I’ve also seen that, despite the obvious effort, he’s just not very good at it. The problem is that among NBA players, Korver is a pretty godawful athlete…I mean stunningly bad. Going back to his 2003 combine performance, Korver posted the 5th worst time that year in the sprint. None of the players who were slower than Korver were within 40 pounds of Korver’s weight and none ended up playing more than 55 career minutes in the NBA. Korver posted the same sprint time as Brian Scalabrine did in 2001. His max vertical leap was 25.5 inches…same as Mike Sweetney (2003) and an inch-and-a-half less than Aaron Gray (2007).

So that’s my theory and as long as Bogans plays significant minutes for my favorite NBA team, I intend to stick it. Coach Thibodeau isn’t crazy or stupid and it isn’t a personal “blind spot” for him. He just can’t bear to see his precious defense ruined by Korver at the “2” any more than it absolutely has to be.
“Thibs” is a lifelong basketball guy who clearly knows his craft and sees his players play and practice on almost a daily basis. Far be it from me with my weak hoops resume that includes being a stud high school player for a truly terrible team and grade school head coach of some local renown to second-guess him.

Except in this case I just can’t help myself.

Coach, I completely agree that Korver is a mess of a defensive player, particularly at shooting guard, but overall as a basketball player, he’s clearly better than Bogans. With the first unit, he will get completely uncontested 3-point looks, but unlike Bogans, Korver will make them. You may also find that, after Korver’s buried a few open treys, your inside offense will open up.

Start Keith Bogans?

Why oh why in the name of all that is good and holy?