Tuesday, February 8, 2011

A Scary Rose

We’ve all seen the sci-fi flicks…you know the one where this creature is discovered, and while obviously some sort of alien life form, it’s not very big or frightening so the people decide it’s not any sort of threat.

Then it begins getting bigger. And stronger. And hungrier. By the time the foolish earthlings realize what they’re up against, it’s too late. Even their nastiest high-tech weaponry is rendered useless by the beast.

I imagine teams around the NBA are starting to view Bulls' point guard Derrick Rose this way.

Heck, he came into the league all small, cute and cuddly. Remember how much fun it was to watch li’l Derrick trying to defend the pick-and-roll back in his rookie year? I mean, the poor little fella just had no clue, smashing into picks set by full grown men twice his size. The kid was a human pinball. On offense, sure he could take it to the hole, but he couldn’t shoot a lick, converting less than 42% of his jumpers. The book on defending Rose was quickly written - just play off him to take away the drive and then grab the rebound. Now worries about his passing either…his assist numbers were mediocre.

Then came his sophomore season which started with Rose being banged up and playing below his rookie form. Maybe those around the league who were farsighted enough to have kept an eye on him, took an early glance and concluded that what they had seen his rookie season was what they were going to continue to get. They were wrong. Rose got healthy…and much better.

While still not a plus defender, his defense improved as he began to sense the picks and work around them. On the offensive end, he began punishing those who played off him, displaying one of the most accurate mid-range jumpers in the league and improving his jump-shooting percentage to 47%. Importantly, in “clutch time” (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points), when the stars come out to play, Rose stepped up with the big boys, averaging 36 points per 48 minutes. He was named an Eastern Conference All Star and opponents were beginning to get a little uneasy.

Still, there was no reason for the league to panic. After all, Rose’s increased scoring wasn’t very efficient due mostly to the almost complete absence of a 3-point shot and his continued inability to get to the free throw line with any regularity. As long as his game stayed around where it was, his competitors could probably live with an inefficient 20-point/6 assist Rose. No doubt Rose had risen in the ranks of Point Guards, but most experts still had him clearly behind Paul, Williams, Nash and even the Celtics’ Rajon Rondo. Rose was most often grouped with other young up-and-comers like Russell Westbrook and Brandon Jennings…not that scary.

Rose spent his second offseason working on his game and starring for the US National Team. With the help of US head coach Mike Krzyzewski and his staff, Rose worked on his defense and long-range shooting. He played well and the team won the World Championship, but Rose really didn’t give us an accurate preview of what the league was in for in his third season.

In the 2010-11 season, Rose has plainly and simply become a beast. He’s done it following the same pattern - identify weaknesses and then obliterate them. While this isn’t all that unusual for the great ones, in 40+ years of watching NBA hoops, I can’t remember any other player who has so purposefully and doggedly grab hold of his shortcomings one-by-one and not simply marginally improve, but actually turned them into new weapons. Most amazing to me is how quickly Rose is able to morph his game. I mean, it’s freakish…in a very good way (if you’re a Bulls’ fan, that is).

Not helping enough on the boards? He’s now averaging 4.7 rebounds/game, better than any of the other elite point guards. Six assists a game not true point guard production? How’s 8+? No 3-ball? Will 38% work as an ante? Not in the class of the elite players? Well only the Heat's Lebron James, the one they call "The King," can match his Rose's combined points-assists total of 32.5 per game.

Those around the league looking to calm their shaky nerves might want to point to Rose’s still relatively infrequent trips to the line, but they shouldn’t get too comfortable because that particular weakness has moved up on Rose’s hit list, and as stated earlier, key weaknesses don’t stay on the list very long. In fact, Rose has been awarded 87 free throw attempts in his last ten games. Uh oh.

Sorry, NBA. As Bulls’ TV color analyst Stacey King says, Rose has become simply “Too big…too strong…too fast…too good.”

Now for the really scary part. Rose is only 22 years old and his hunger to take his game to even higher levels appears to be bottomless.

Note to league: Be afraid…be very afraid.

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